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Managing mixed wheat–sheep farms with a seasonal forecast

Listed author(s):
  • Asseng, Senthold
  • Thomas, Dean
  • McIntosh, Peter
  • Alves, Oscar
  • Khimashia, Nirav
Registered author(s):

    Seasonal rainfall forecasts have been shown to have significant skill in many parts of the world. In this study, seasonal forecasts were used together with a crop simulation model and a simple pasture growth curve to inform several decisions on year-to-year farm management, including on land-allocations in a mixed wheat–sheep farming system. In seasons where “above-median” rainfall was forecast, N fertiliser applications in cropping were increased to support the higher grain yield potential, sheep stocking rates were increased to take advantage of higher pasture growth and unused pasture land was made available for cropping. In seasons where “below–median” rainfall was forecast, N fertiliser applications in cropping were reduced to minimise costs, and traditional conservative sheep stocking rates were used. Application of the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) seasonal rainfall forecast yielded additional profit of up to A$66ha−1 per annum, equivalent to A$200,000y−1 for an average size farm in Western Australia. The largest benefit from applying a forecast in wheat–sheep farms comes from the increase of more profitable cropping during “above-median” rainfall seasons. This is well above the benefit of previous single-commodity forecast applications, and therefore has widespread potential to improve decision making on mixed crop–livestock farms. With the projected decline of rainfall in the Australian and other rain-fed crop–livestock regions of the world, skilful seasonal forecasting systems will become increasingly valuable as they will assist farm managers to capture the benefits in the declining number of potentially high-production seasons and minimise the input costs in the increasing number of low-production seasons.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Agricultural Systems.

    Volume (Year): 113 (2012)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 50-56

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:113:y:2012:i:c:p:50-56
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2012.08.001
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    1. Messina, C. D. & Hansen, J. W. & Hall, A. J., 1999. "Land allocation conditioned on El Nino-Southern Oscillation phases in the Pampas of Argentina," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 197-212, June.
    2. Villano, Renato & Fleming, Euan & Fleming, Pauline, 2010. "Evidence of farm-level synergies in mixed-farming systems in the Australian Wheat-Sheep Zone," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 146-152, March.
    3. Cabrera, Victor E. & Letson, David & Podesta, Guillermo, 2007. "The value of climate information when farm programs matter," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-3), pages 25-42, March.
    4. Moore, A. D. & Donnelly, J. R. & Freer, M., 1997. "GRAZPLAN: Decision support systems for Australian grazing enterprises. III. Pasture growth and soil moisture submodels, and the GrassGro DSS," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 535-582, December.
    5. Petersen, E. H. & Fraser, R. W., 2001. "An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 259-274, October.
    6. Illius, A. W. & Derry, J. F. & Gordon, I. J., 1998. "Evaluation of strategies for tracking climatic variation in semi-arid grazing systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 381-398, July.
    7. Pannell, David J., 1995. "Economic aspects of legume management and legume research in dryland farming systems of southern Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 217-236.
    8. Oliver, Yvette M. & Robertson, Michael J. & Weeks, Cameron, 2010. "A new look at an old practice: Benefits from soil water accumulation in long fallows under Mediterranean conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 291-300, December.
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