A decision support system for strategic planning on pig farms
This paper reported on a decision support system (DSS) for strategic planning on pig farms. The DSS was based . on a stochastic simulation model of investment decisions (ISM). ISM described a farm with one loan and one building using 23 variables. The simulation model calculated the results of a strategic plan for an individual pig farm over a time horizon of a maximum of 20 years for a given scenario. For six distinct replacement strategies, regression metamodels were specified to describe the outcome of the response variable as a function of the farm variables. The regression results indicated that a linear function with only nine or ten farm variables gave a reasonable estimate of the results of the simulation model. Turnover ratio, feed conversion ratio, percentage of meat, farm size, family expenses, and experience were the main parameters determining future relative farm position. For farms with high levels of family expenditures andjor financial leverage an economic replacement strategy was optimal. Risk attitudes played a minor role in the choice of the optimal strategy, because one strategy was preferred to another regardless of risk preference. To analyze the attractiveness of a chosen strategic plan for different 'what-if' scenarios, the visual method using graphical representations offered sufficient information. The number of years ahead for which the decision maker evaluated the consequences of simulated strategic plans influenced which strategy was preferred.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Backus, Ge B.C. & Timmer, G. Th. & Dijkhuizen, A.A. & Eidman, V.R. & Vos, F., 1995.
"A decision support system for strategic planning on pig farms,"
Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists,
International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(2), November.
- Backus, G. B. C. & Timmer, G. Th. & Dijkhuizen, A. A. & Eidman, V. R. & Vos, F., 1995. "A decision support system for strategic planning on pig farms," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 101-108, November.
- Kleijnen, J.P.C., 1990.
"Sensitivity analysis of simulation experiments : Regression analysis and statistical design,"
FEW 440, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Kleijnen, Jack P.C., 1992. "Sensitivity analysis of simulation experiments: regression analysis and statistical design," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-315.
- Meyer, Jack, 1977. "Choice among distributions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 326-336, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agecon:v:13:y:1995:i:2:p:101-108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.