IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2023-06-62.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of Russian Energy Resources on the Economic Growth of the EU: Using Computational Intelligence Algorithms

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamed F. Abd El-Aal

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Commerce, Arish University, North Sinai, Egypt,)

  • Abdelsamiea Tahsin Abdelsamiea

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Commerce, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt.)

Abstract

This study explores the impact of Russian oil and natural gas on the economic growth of the European Union. The Gradient boosting algorithm was relied on to determine this effect because of its high prediction metrics (MSE: 0.002, RMSE: 0.040, MAE: 0.034, R2: 99.9). The study depended on three scenarios. The first scenario is that Russia's exports of both products decline to half the year 2022, then to the quarter of 2023, and this second scenario, then the worst scenario, is to prevent Its exports of both products in 2024. But the result is a decline in the European Union's economic growth in 2022 to (-2.15%), then it turns to 2.85% in 2023, and then to 3.86% in 2024, i.e., in the worst scenario year. The evidence for this is that the economies of these countries reduced their growth rates in 2020 (the Covid-19 crisis) to -5.96%, which turned to positive growth in 2021, amounting to 5.38%. This indicates these economies' ability to adapt in the short term by providing alternatives to the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed F. Abd El-Aal & Abdelsamiea Tahsin Abdelsamiea, 2023. "The impact of Russian Energy Resources on the Economic Growth of the EU: Using Computational Intelligence Algorithms," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 597-602, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-06-62
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/14355/7601
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/14355
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Glauben & Miranda Svanidze & Linde Götz & Sören Prehn & Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani & Ivan Đurić & Lena Kuhn, 2022. "The War in Ukraine, Agricultural Trade and Risks to Global Food Security," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(3), pages 157-163, May.
    2. Md. Kausar Alam & Mosab I. Tabash & Mabruk Billah & Sanjeev Kumar & Suhaib Anagreh, 2022. "The Impacts of the Russia–Ukraine Invasion on Global Markets and Commodities: A Dynamic Connectedness among G7 and BRIC Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-20, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Danilo Đokić & Bojan Matkovski & Marija Jeremić & Ivan Đurić, 2022. "Land Productivity and Agri-Environmental Indicators: A Case Study of Western Balkans," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Mariusz Hamulczuk & Karolina Pawlak & Joanna Stefańczyk & Jarosław Gołębiewski, 2023. "Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, November.
    3. Rogna, Marco, 2023. "The Effects of Rising Prices on Corn Production in Western African Countries," 97th Annual Conference, March 27-29, 2023, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 334549, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    4. Abdulrasheed Zakari & Jurij Toplak & Luka Martin Tomažič, 2022. "Exploring the Relationship between Energy and Food Security in Africa with Instrumental Variables Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-14, July.
    5. Guo, Yaoqi & Li, Yingli & Liu, Yongheng & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical relations on the evolution of cobalt trade network from the perspective of industrial chain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    6. Patel, Ritesh & Kumar, Sanjeev & Bouri, Elie & Iqbal, Najaf, 2023. "Spillovers between green and dirty cryptocurrencies and socially responsible investments around the war in Ukraine," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 143-162.
    7. Soojung Ahn & Dongin Kim & Sandro Steinbach, 2023. "The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on grain and oilseed trade," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 291-299, January.
    8. Oksana Radchenko & Leonid Tulush & Serhii Leontovych, 2023. "Financial instruments for ensuring national security: experience of Ukraine in military conditions," Insights into Regional Development, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 5(1), pages 10-25, March.
    9. Piotr Fiszeder & Marta Ma³ecka, 2022. "Forecasting volatility during the outbreak of Russian invasion of Ukraine: application to commodities, stock indices, currencies, and cryptocurrencies," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(4), pages 939-967, December.
    10. Eefa Manzoor & Zahid Majeed & Shamyla Nawazish & Wasim Akhtar & Sofia Baig & Ayesha Baig & Syeda Manahil Fatima Bukhari & Qaisar Mahmood & Zainub Mir & Shahida Shaheen, 2022. "Wood Ash Additive for Performance Improvement of Gelatin-Based Slow-Release Urea Fertilizer," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-16, October.
    11. Đokić, Danilo & Matkovski, Bojan & Jeremić, Marija & Đurić, Ivan, 2022. "Land productivity and agri-environmental indicators: A case study of Western Balkans," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13.
    12. Naima BENTOUIR, 2022. "The Russia-Ukraine invasion toward increasing food security threat for population: An empirical study using T-GARCH model," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(633), W), pages 173-184, Winter.
    13. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Khalid, Ali Awais & Sana, Moniba, 2023. "Conflict vs sustainability of global energy, agricultural and metal markets: A lesson from Ukraine-Russia war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    14. Yagi, Michiyuki & Managi, Shunsuke, 2023. "The spillover effects of rising energy prices following 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 680-695.
    15. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Sinha, Avik & Murshed, Muntasir, 2023. "Russia-Ukraine conflict sentiments and energy market returns in G7 countries: Discovering the unexplored dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    16. Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "The Russia–Ukraine war and global trade reallocations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    17. Klymenko, Nataliia & Voronenko, Iryna & Nehrey, Maryna & Rogoza, Konstyantyn & Rogoza, Nataliy, 2023. "Risk assessment of shock periods and investment attractiveness of agroholdings of Ukraine," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 9(2), June.
    18. Krzysztof Dmytrów & Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Joanna Landmesser-Rusek, 2022. "Sustainable Energy in European Countries: Analysis of Sustainable Development Goal 7 Using the Dynamic Time Warping Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-17, October.
    19. Roy, Archi & Soni, Anchal & Deb, Soudeep, 2023. "A wavelet-based methodology to compare the impact of pandemic versus Russia–Ukraine conflict on crude oil sector and its interconnectedness with other energy and non-energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    20. Niu, Zibo & Wang, Chenlu & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Forecasting stock market volatility with various geopolitical risks categories: New evidence from machine learning models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gradient Boosting; Russia-Ukraine War; European Union Growth; Crude Oil; Natural Gas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-06-62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.