IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2020-06-42.html

Driving Fundamentals of Natural Gas Price in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Saleh Mothana Obadi

    (Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Slovakia.)

  • Matej Korcek

    (Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Slovakia.)

Abstract

This paper attempted to examine the factors driving the price development of the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) month-ahead contract using linear regression over the period 2016 2019 when the TTF market became the most liquid natural gas hub and primary reference source for gas prices in Europe. We examined the possible fundamentals and used OLS methodology to estimate the linear regression model, which explained the development of TTF MA. We concluded the price based on factors determining marginal demand and supply. The most significant factors seemed to be the variables representing the price of German power and the price of coal since the competition between coal and gas in power generation determines the marginal demand, which sets the price for gas. The change in total demand was another significant factor, although its impact was smaller. The significance of the LNG variable indicated the exposure of European natural gas price to the global supply and demand. The model also suggested the importance of storage capacity for the whole system.

Suggested Citation

  • Saleh Mothana Obadi & Matej Korcek, 2020. "Driving Fundamentals of Natural Gas Price in Europe," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 318-324.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2020-06-42
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/10192/5458
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/10192/5458
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:aen:journl:ej37-2-nick is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Asche, Frank & Misund, Bård & Sikveland, Marius, 2013. "The relationship between spot and contract gas prices in Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 212-217.
    3. repec:aen:journl:33-2-02 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Nick, Sebastian & Thoenes, Stefan, 2014. "What drives natural gas prices? — A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 517-527.
    5. Hulshof, Daan & van der Maat, Jan-Pieter & Mulder, Machiel, 2016. "Market fundamentals, competition and natural-gas prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 480-491.
    6. Green, Rikard & Larsson, Karl & Lunina, Veronika & Nilsson, Birger, 2018. "Cross-commodity news transmission and volatility spillovers in the German energy markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 231-243.
    7. Mosquera-López, Stephanía & Nursimulu, Anjali, 2019. "Drivers of electricity price dynamics: Comparative analysis of spot and futures markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 76-87.
    8. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The behaviour mechanism analysis of regional natural gas prices: A multi-scale perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 266-277.
    9. repec:aen:journl:2008v29-02-a03 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:aen:journl:2006v27-02-a02 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Roberts, Gavin, 2019. "Revisiting the Drivers of Natural Gas Prices. A replication study of Brown & Yücel (The Energy Journal, 2008)," International Journal for Re-Views in Empirical Economics (IREE), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 3, pages 1-24.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saleh Mothana Obadi & Matej Korcek, 2023. "Examining the Drivers of Natural Gas Price in Europe - Focus on the Role of Speculators," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 356-366, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Dayong & Shi, Min & Shi, Xunpeng, 2018. "Oil indexation, market fundamentals, and natural gas prices: An investigation of the Asian premium in natural gas trade," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 33-41.
    2. Akcora, Begum & Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge, 2023. "Price bubbles in the European natural gas market between 2011 and 2020," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Polo, Michele, 2019. "Convergence of European natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 793-811.
    4. Hassan Hamie & Anis Hoayek & Hans Auer, 2020. "Modeling Post-Liberalized European Gas Market Concentration—A Game Theory Perspective," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Wang, Tiantian & Qu, Wan & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Wu, Fei, 2022. "Time-varying determinants of China's liquefied natural gas import price: A dynamic model averaging approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    6. Belhoula, Mohamed Malek & Mensi, Walid & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2024. "Dynamic speculation and efficiency in European natural gas markets during the COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine crises," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    7. Yiqun Ma & Wei Zhen, 2020. "Market Fundamentals and Iron Ore Spot Prices," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(315), pages 470-489, December.
    8. Dukhanina, Ekaterina & Massol, Olivier & Lévêque, François, 2019. "Policy measures targeting a more integrated gas market: Impact of a merger of two trading zones on prices and arbitrage activity in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 583-593.
    9. Liang, Chao & Xia, Zhenglan & Lai, Xiaodong & Wang, Lu, 2022. "Natural gas volatility prediction: Fresh evidence from extreme weather and extended GARCH-MIDAS-ES model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    10. Stajić, Ljubiša & Praksová, Renáta & Brkić, Dejan & Praks, Pavel, 2024. "Estimation of global natural gas spot prices using big data and symbolic regression," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    11. Su, Chi-Wei & Yuan, Xi & Umar, Muhammad & Chang, Tsangyao, 2022. "Dynamic price linkage of energies in transformation: Evidence from quantile connectedness," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Halser, Christoph & Paraschiv, Florentina & Russo, Marianna, 2023. "Oil–gas price relationships on three continents: Disruptions and equilibria," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    13. Madadkhani, Shiva & Ikonnikova, Svetlana, 2024. "Toward high-resolution projection of electricity prices: A machine learning approach to quantifying the effects of high fuel and CO2 prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    14. Li, Xiuming & Sun, Mei & Gao, Cuixia & He, Huizi, 2019. "The spillover effects between natural gas and crude oil markets: The correlation network analysis based on multi-scale approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 306-324.
    15. Saleh Mothana Obadi & Matej Korcek, 2023. "Examining the Drivers of Natural Gas Price in Europe - Focus on the Role of Speculators," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 356-366, May.
    16. Theodosios Perifanis & Athanasios Dagoumas, 2020. "Price and Volatility Spillovers between Crude Oil and Natural Gas markets in Europe and Japan-Korea," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 432-446.
    17. Tiantian Liu & Xie He & Tadahiro Nakajima & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "Influence of Fluctuations in Fossil Fuel Commodities on Electricity Markets: Evidence from Spot and Futures Markets in Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-20, April.
    18. Wiggins, Seth & Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2017. "Turbulent times: Uncovering the origins of US natural gas price fluctuations since deregulation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 196-205.
    19. Ekaterina Dukhanina & Olivier Massol, 2017. "Spatial Integration of Natural Gas Markets A Litterature Review," Working Papers hal-03187890, HAL.
    20. Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Hai-Ying & Geng, Jiang-Bo, 2018. "What drives natural gas prices in the United States? – A directed acyclic graph approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 79-88.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2020-06-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.