IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2015-03-02.html

An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Money Market Interest Rates and Stock Market Performance: Evidence from Zimbabwe (2009-2013)

Author

Listed:
  • Trust Kganyago

    (Department of Finance, National University of Science and Technology, PO Box AC 939, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe)

  • Victor Gumbo

    (Department of Finance, National University of Science and Technology, PO Box AC 939, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe)

Abstract

The research examines the long run relationship between money market interest rates and stock market returns in Zimbabwe from April 2009 to December 2013. The estimation model controls for money supply growth rate, inflation, volume of manufacturing index, crude oil price and political stability. All the variables were tested for unit root using augmented Dickey-Fuller test before Johansen cointegration tests. Based on vector error correlation Granger causality tests, findings show evidence of strong and statistically significant inverse causal relationship between money market interest and stock market returns. Findings also show existence of short run causality that runs from stock market returns to money market interest rates. This is believed to be caused by the passive nature of money market in Zimbabwe and non-functionality of Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe in controlling interest rates through monetary policy. There is therefore need to implement robust and pragmatic macroeconomic policies like the repo market to reactivate the money market.

Suggested Citation

  • Trust Kganyago & Victor Gumbo, 2015. "An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Money Market Interest Rates and Stock Market Performance: Evidence from Zimbabwe (2009-2013)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, vol. 5(3), pages 638-646.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2015-03-02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/1202/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/1202/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J., 1988. "A multi-index risk model of the Japanese stock market," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 21-44, October.
    2. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2243-2257 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Chen, Carl R. & Mohan, Nancy J. & Steiner, Thomas L., 1999. "Discount rate changes, stock market returns, volatility, and trading volume: Evidence from intraday data and implications for market efficiency," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 897-924, June.
    4. Emmanuel Anoruo, 2011. "Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Causality between Crude Oil Price Changes and Stock Market Returns," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 4(3), pages 75-92, December.
    5. Basher, Syed A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Oil price risk and emerging stock markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 224-251, December.
    6. Istemi Berk & Berna Aydogan, 2012. "Crude Oil Price Shocks and Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkish Stock Market under Global Liquidity Conditions," EWI Working Papers 2012-15, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    7. Ramón Cobo-Reyes & Gabriel Pérez Quirós, 2005. "The effect of oil price on industrial production and on stock returns," ThE Papers 05/18, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dhruv Rawat & Sujay Patni & Ram Mehta, 2021. "Stock prices and Macroeconomic indicators: Investigating a correlation in Indian context," Papers 2112.08071, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    2. Donald A. Otieno & Rose W. Ngugi & Nelson H. W. Wawire, 2017. "Effects of Interest Rate on Stock Market Returns in Kenya," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(8), pages 40-50, August.
    3. Peter Arhenful & Augustine Kwadwo Yeboah & Kofi Sarfo Adjei, 2021. "Effect of Interest Rate on Stock Prices in Ghana," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 12(1), pages 1-7.
    4. Christian A. Conrad, 2021. "The Effects of Money Supply and Interest Rates on Stock Prices, Evidence from Two Behavioral Experiments," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 33-41, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gülfen TUNA & Nazire GÖLEÇ & Vedat Ender TUNA, 2017. "The relationship between oil and stock prices: The case of developing and developed countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(613), W), pages 97-108, Winter.
    2. Rui F. Teixeira & Mara Madaleno & Elisabete S. Vieira, 2017. "Oil price effects over individual Portuguese stock returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 891-926, November.
    3. Ramos, Sofia B. & Veiga, Helena, 2011. "Risk factors in oil and gas industry returns: International evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 525-542, May.
    4. Radosław Puka & Bartosz Łamasz & Marek Michalski, 2021. "Using Artificial Neural Networks to Support the Decision-Making Process of Buying Call Options Considering Risk Appetite," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-24, December.
    5. Roman Mestre, 2021. "A wavelet approach of investing behaviors and their effects on risk exposures," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-37, December.
    6. Morema, Kgotso & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2020. "The impact of oil and gold price fluctuations on the South African equity market: Volatility spillovers and financial policy implications," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Zhang, Hao & Cai, Guixin & Yang, Dongxiao, 2020. "The impact of oil price shocks on clean energy stocks: Fresh evidence from multi-scale perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    8. Jammazi, Rania, 2012. "Oil shock transmission to stock market returns: Wavelet-multivariate Markov switching GARCH approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 430-454.
    9. Arturo Lorenzo Valdés & Rocío Durán Vázquez & Leticia Armenta Fraire, 2012. "Conditional Correlation Between Oil and Stock Market Returns: The Case of Mexico," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 7(1), pages 49-63, Enero-Jun.
    10. Westerlund, Joakim & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2019. "Panel evidence on the ability of oil returns to predict stock returns in the G7 area," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 3-12.
    11. Kapetanios, G. & Tzavalis, E., 2010. "Modeling structural breaks in economic relationships using large shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 417-436, March.
    12. Aynur Pala, 2014. "The Effect of Valuation Ratios, Gold Price, and Petroleum Price on Equity Returns: A Comparison of Static Panel and Quantile Regressions," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(1), pages 80-89, January.
    13. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Oil-Price Uncertainty and International Stock Returns: Dissecting Quantile-Based Predictability and Spillover Effects Using More than a Century of Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-26, November.
    14. Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq, 2016. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock market under structural breaks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-23.
    15. Jubinski, Daniel & Tomljanovich, Marc, 2013. "Do FOMC minutes matter to markets? An intraday analysis of FOMC minutes releases on individual equity volatility and returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 86-97.
    16. Radosław Puka & Bartosz Łamasz & Marek Michalski, 2021. "Effectiveness of Artificial Neural Networks in Hedging against WTI Crude Oil Price Risk," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, June.
    17. Khaled Bataineh, 2024. "Crude Oil Prices and the Egyptian Economy Evidence from the Stock Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 14(1), pages 383-392, January.
    18. Smales, L.A., 2019. "Slopes, spreads, and depth: Monetary policy announcements and liquidity provision in the energy futures market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 234-252.
    19. Nazlıoğlu, Elif Hilal & Kök, Dündar & Soytaş, Uğur, 2025. "Energy prices and stock markets: Does energy supply security matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    20. Khan, Muhammad Imran & Teng, Jian-Zhou & Khan, Muhammad Kamran & Jadoon, Arshad Ullah & Khan, Muhammad Fayaz, 2021. "The impact of oil prices on stock market development in Pakistan: Evidence with a novel dynamic simulated ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2015-03-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Monica Sinhat (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.