IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-23-00083.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does global monetary policy uncertainty matter for stock market returns? The evidence of quantile regression for Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Damilola Felix Arawomo

    (Central Bank of Nigeria)

  • Richard Umeokwobi

    (Central Bank of Nigeria)

  • Emmanuel Ohaegbu

    (Central Bank of Nigeria)

Abstract

This study explores the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on stock returns in seven major African stock markets: South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, and BRVM, using quantile regression and monthly data from August 2017 to August 2022. The results show that monetary policy uncertainty positively affects stock returns in South Africa and Egypt, positioning them as safe havens. Conversely, it negatively impacts stock returns in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, and Mauritius. Oil prices positively influence returns in Nigeria and Mauritius, while exchange rate appreciation boosts Nigerian stock returns. Corruption has a negligible effect on stock returns. The findings emphasize the importance of stable policies, financial resilience, and improved governance for fostering investor confidence and enhancing market performance in Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Damilola Felix Arawomo & Richard Umeokwobi & Emmanuel Ohaegbu, 2025. "Does global monetary policy uncertainty matter for stock market returns? The evidence of quantile regression for Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(1), pages 210-229.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-23-00083
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2025/Volume45/EB-25-V45-I1-P21.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Keywords: Uncertainty; Monetary; Stock return; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-23-00083. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.