GDP Growth Volatility and Regional Free Trade Agreements
This research explores the consequences of entering into a regional free trade agreement on a country's level of volatility in real per capita GDP growth. It incorporates 97 countries and 2404 observations. It also employs a system GMM, dynamic panel methodology to control for business cycle effects and endogenous RHS variables. At the least, this study finds that regional free trade agreements will not increase volatility in most cases, and may actually lower it. In only one out of the seven agreements explored is volatility larger after the implementation of the agreement. Furthermore, the role that domestic and foreign variables play in enhancing the agreements' effect on volatility is critical for determining whether the agreement will beneficial. What is shown is that not all agreements are equal in outcomes, but that they can at least provide a medium through which volatility can be lowered.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 10 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm|
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.usc.es/economet/info.htm Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Russell Hillberry & Christine McDaniel, 2003.
"A Decomposition of North American Trade Growth since NAFTA,"
- Hillberry, Russell H. & McDaniel, Christine A., 2002. "A Decomposition of North American Trade Growth since NAFTA," Working Papers 15866, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
- Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007.
"Volatility and Development,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287, 02.
- Miklos Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "Volatility and development," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 5312, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Miklos Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "Volatility and development," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3743, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Koren, Miklós & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2005. "Volatility and Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 5307, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Miklos Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "Volatility and Development," CEP Discussion Papers dp0706, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Edwards Jeffrey A & Thames Frank C. & Edwards Martin S., 2006. "Measuring the Dissemination of Volatility across Levels of Development," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-40, November.
- Stephen Redding & Anthony J. Venables, 2001.
"Economic Geography and International Inequality,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0495, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Redding, Stephen J. & Venables, Anthony J, 2000. "Economic Geography and International Inequality," CEPR Discussion Papers 2568, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stephen Redding & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "Economic Geography and International Inequality," International Trade 0103003, EconWPA.
- Stephen Redding & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "Economic geography and international inequality," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3714, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995.
"Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models,"
104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
- Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995.
"Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
- M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Are Preferential Trading Arrangements Trade-Liberalizing or Protectionist?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 105-124, Fall.
- Mendoza, Enrique G., 1997. "Terms-of-trade uncertainty and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 323-356, December.
- Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
- Robert Lensink & Oliver Morrissey, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment: Flows, Volatility, and the Impact on Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 478-493, 08.
- Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Lisa CHAUVET, 1999.
"Aid and Performance: A Reassessment,"
- Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2002.
"Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Yunyong Thaicharoen, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," NBER Working Papers 9124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- EDWARDS, Jeffrey A., 2010. "GDP Growth Volatility and Regional Free Trade Agreements," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2), pages 73-86.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Blattman, Christopher & Hwang, Jason & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2007. "Winners and losers in the commodity lottery: The impact of terms of trade growth and volatility in the Periphery 1870-1939," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 156-179, January.
- Ludema, Rodney D., 2002. "Increasing returns, multinationals and geography of preferential trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 329-358, March.
- Kose, M. Ayhan & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2005. "How might CAFTA change macroeconomic fluctuations in Central America?: Lessons from NAFTA," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 77-104, February.
- Jeffrey Edwards & Frank Thames, 2010. "Growth volatility and the interaction between economic and political development," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 183-201, August.
- Venables, Anthony J, 2000.
"Winners and Losers from Regional Integration Agreements,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2528, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Anthony J. Venables, 2003. "Winners and losers from regional integration agreements," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(490), pages 747-761, October.
- Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:10:y:2010:i:2_6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (M. Carmen Guisan)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.