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Vom Winde verweht? Strommarktpreise und Anreize zur Investition in thermische Kraftwerke bei erhöhtem Angebot an Windenergie


  • Thure Traber
  • Claudia Kemfert


The increased wind energy supplied to many electricity markets around the world has to be balanced by reliably ramping units or other complementary measures when wind conditions are low. At the same time wind energy impacts both, the utilization of thermal power plants and the market prices. While the market prices tend to decrease, the impact on the utilization of different plant types is at the outset unclear. To analyze the incentives to invest in thermal power plants under increased wind energy supply, we develop a computational oligopoly model which includes ramping restrictions and costs and apply it to the German case. We find that due to current wind supply the market prices are reduced by more than five percent, and the incentives to invest in natural gas fired units are largely reduced. An increased wind supply erodes their attractiveness further. Consequently, a gap between the need for and the incentive to provide flexibility can be expected. Die wachsende Integration von Windenergie in vielen Strommärkten weltweit muss durch zuverlässige, flexible Kraftwerke oder durch sonstige Ausgleichsmaßnahmen für windarme Zeiten begleitet werden. Weiterhin hat die Windenergie einen Einfluss sowohl auf den Einsatz von Wärmekraftwerken als auch auf die Strommarktpreise. Während sie auf die Marktpreise generell eine senkende Wirkung hat, ist die Wirkung auf den Einsatz verschiedener Kraftwerkstypen prinzipiell uneindeutig. Zur Untersuchung der Anreize für Investitionen in Wärmekraftwerke bei einem steigenden Angebot an Windenergie entwickelt dieser Beitrag ein berechenbares Oligopolmodell, das Restriktionen und Kosten des Anfahrens von Kraftwerken bei Leistungswechseln (Ramping) berücksichtigt. Dieses Modell wenden wir auf Deutschland an. Die Untersuchung zeigt, dass das aktuelle Windenergieangebot zu einer Senkung der Marktpreise um mehr als fünf Prozent und zu einem beträchtlich geringeren Anreiz für Investitionen in erdgasbefeuerte Kraftwerke führt. Ein erhöhtes Windenergieangebot wird die Attraktivität erdgasbefeuerter Kraftwerke noch weiter mindern. Daher ist mit einer Diskrepanz zwischen dem Bedarf an flexibler Stromerzeugung einerseits und den Anreizen zu deren Bereitstellung andererseits zu rechnen.

Suggested Citation

  • Thure Traber & Claudia Kemfert, 2012. "Vom Winde verweht? Strommarktpreise und Anreize zur Investition in thermische Kraftwerke bei erhöhtem Angebot an Windenergie," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 81(1), pages 91-110.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:81-1-7

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Rathmann, M., 2007. "Do support systems for RES-E reduce EU-ETS-driven electricity prices?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 342-349, January.
    2. Denny, Eleanor & O'Malley, Mark, 2009. "The impact of carbon prices on generation-cycling costs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1204-1212, April.
    3. Tuohy, Aidan & Meibom, Peter & Denny, Eleanor & O'Malley, Mark, 2009. "Unit commitment for systems with significant wind penetration," MPRA Paper 34849, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Green, Richard J & Newbery, David M, 1992. "Competition in the British Electricity Spot Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 929-953, October.
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    6. Ludwig Kuntz & Felix Müsgens, 2007. "Modelling start-up costs of multiple technologies in electricity markets," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 66(1), pages 21-32, August.
    7. Sensfuß, Frank & Ragwitz, Mario & Genoese, Massimo, 2008. "The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3076-3084, August.
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    More about this item


    Electricity market modeling; ramping costs; wind energy; oligopoly;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources


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