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Makroökonomische Implikationen der Mitgliedschaft Deutschlands in der Europäischen Währungsunion

  • Volker Clausen
  • Bernd Hayo

Dieser Beitrag vergleicht auf der Grundlage von Zentralbank-Reaktionsfunktionen das Verhalten der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) mit dem der Deutschen Bundesbank und untersucht die makroökonomischen Implikationen für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Bei Zugrundelegung von Daten für das gesamte Eurowährungsgebiet wird zunächst gezeigt, dass sich das Verhalten der EZB nicht signifikant vom früheren geldpolitischen Kurs der Deutschen Bundesbank unterscheidet. Beim Vergleich der Zinspolitik auf der Grundlage europäischer und ausschließlich deutscher Daten zeigen sich Unterschiede. Dementsprechend verschiebt die Übertragung der Geldpolitik auf die EZB Anpassungslasten auf die nationale Fiskal- und Tarifpolitik. Insgesamt sind die konjunkturellen Anpassungslasten in Deutschland jedoch vergleichsweise gering: Aufgrund der großen Bedeutung Deutschlands im Euroraum findet die deutsche Konjunktur implizit starke Berücksichtigung in der Geldpolitik der EZB. Die Schocks in der Kapazitätsauslastung in Europa sind positiv miteinander korreliert. Asymmetrien in der Stärke der geldpolitischen Transmission innerhalb Europas korrespondieren in unserer empirischen Analyse mit Asymmetrien in der Stärke der Schocks.

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Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

Volume (Year): 71 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 339-353

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:71-30-5
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