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Ursachen für die Häufung von "Zwillingskrisen" in Schwellenländern

  • Heike Joebges
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    Das gemeinsame Auftreten von Währungs- und Bankenkrisen (Zwillingskrisen) in den 80er und 90er Jahren ist häufiger in Schwellenländern zu beobachten gewesen als in Industrieländern. Ursache dafür ist meist ein höherer Anteil von Fremdwährungsverschuldung sowie ein größerer Anteil von kurzfristiger Verschuldung an der Gesamtverschuldung von Schwellenländern. Der Anreiz zu dieser Verschuldungsstruktur entsteht besonders im Zuge von Kapitalmarktliberalisierungen, da diese eine Schwächung des Bankensystems fördern. Daß Schwellenländer von den negativen Konsequenzen eher betroffen sind, läßt sich mit den aus portfoliotheoretischer Sicht notwendigen Steigerungen der ohnehin höheren Risikoprämie auf ihre Währungen erklären. Bei steigenden Abwertungserwartungen können Zinserhöhungen nur begrenzt zur Stabilisierung der Kapitalzuflüsse eingesetzt werden, weil sie das Bankensystem aufgrund des kurzfristigeren Anteils an Verschuldung stärker schwächen als in Industrieländern. Insofern ist die Erfolgswahrscheinlichkeit einer spekulativen Attacke höher. Da Abwertungen zu einer Erhöhung der Schuldenlast - gemessen in inländischer Währung - führen, sind Zwillingskrisen wahrscheinlich.

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    Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

    Volume (Year): 69 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 38-52

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    Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:69-10-3
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