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Banking and balance of payments crises: On possible causes of the twin crises

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  • Buch, Claudia M.
  • Heinrich, Ralph P.

Abstract

Banking and balance of payments crises often happen quite simultaneously. We show that the impact of an expected devaluation on the net worth of commercial banks with a short open foreign exchange position speeds up the timing of a balance of payments crisis. We employ an asymmetric information framework in which domestic commercial banks have to pay a positive risk premium on the international capital market which is determined by their net worth. Some stylized facts from selected transition and developing countries are presented in order to gauge the empirical relevance of the effects that we stress.

Suggested Citation

  • Buch, Claudia M. & Heinrich, Ralph P., 1998. "Banking and balance of payments crises: On possible causes of the twin crises," Kiel Working Papers 848, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:848
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Buch, Claudia M. & Heinrich, Ralph P., 1997. "Financing the transition: Risks and benefits of integrating into the international capital market," Kiel Working Papers 818, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
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    Cited by:

    1. Buch, Claudia M. & Heinrich, Ralph P. & Spinanger, Dean & Engerer, Hella & Lodahl, Maria & Schrettl, Wolfram & Schrooten, Mechthild & Gabrisch, Hubert & Sigmund, Peter, 1998. "Die wirtschaftliche Lage Rußlands: Krise offenbart Fehler der Wirtschaftspolitik. Dreizehnter Bericht," Kiel Discussion Papers 330/331, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Heinrich, Ralph P. & Buch, Claudia M., 1999. "Handling Banking Crises - The Case of Russia," Kiel Working Papers 920, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    3. Gustav A. Horn & Mechthild Schrooten, 1999. "Twin Crisis in Asia: The Failure of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes and Delayed Institutional Adjustment," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 68(1), pages 10-21.
    4. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Gottschalk, Jan & Scheide, Joachim & Schlie, Markus & Strauß, Hubert, 1998. "Leicht gedämpfter Aufschwung in der Weltwirtschaft," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1759, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Heike Joebges, 2000. "Ursachen für die Häufung von "Zwillingskrisen" in Schwellenländern," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 69(1), pages 38-52.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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