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Sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa and their association with the spread of HIV: insights from a mathematical model

Author

Listed:
  • Leigh Johnson

    (University of Cape Town (UCT))

  • Rob Dorrington

    (University of Cape Town (UCT))

  • Debbie Bradshaw

    (South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC))

  • Victoria Pillay-Van Wyk

    (Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC))

  • Thomas Rehle

    (Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC))

Abstract

This paper aims to quantify the effects of different types of sexual risk behaviour on the spread of HIV in South Africa. A mathematical model is developed to simulate changes in numbers of sexual partners, changes in marital status, changes in commercial sex activity and changes in the frequency of unprotected sex over the life course. This is extended to allow for the transmission of HIV, and the model is fitted to South African HIV prevalence data and sexual behaviour data. Results suggest that concurrent partnerships and other non-spousal partnerships are major drivers of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Leigh Johnson & Rob Dorrington & Debbie Bradshaw & Victoria Pillay-Van Wyk & Thomas Rehle, 2009. "Sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa and their association with the spread of HIV: insights from a mathematical model," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(11), pages 289-340, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:21:y:2009:i:11
    as

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    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol21/11/21-11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emily Oster, 2005. "Sexually Transmitted Infections, Sexual Behavior, and the HIV/AIDS Epidemic," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 467-515.
    2. Leigh F. Johnson & Rob Dorrington, 2006. "Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(22), pages 541-574, June.
    3. Tawfik, Linda & Watkins, Susan Cotts, 2007. "Sex in Geneva, sex in Lilongwe, and sex in Balaka," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 64(5), pages 1090-1101, March.
    4. Eaton, Liberty & Flisher, Alan J. & Aarø, Leif E., 2003. "Unsafe sexual behaviour in South African youth," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 149-165, January.
    5. Eline Korenromp & Carina van Vliet & Roel Bakker & Sake de Vlas & J. Dik & F. Habbema, 2000. "HIV spread and partnership reduction for different patterns of sexual behaviour - a study with the microsimulation model STDSIM," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 135-173.
    6. repec:aph:ajpbhl:1995:85:11:1521-1525_0 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Dunkle, Kristin L. & Jewkes, Rachel K. & Brown, Heather C. & Gray, Glenda E. & McIntryre, James A. & Harlow, Siobán D., 2004. "Transactional sex among women in Soweto, South Africa: prevalence, risk factors and association with HIV infection," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 1581-1592, October.
    8. Nnko, Soori & Boerma, J.T.J Ties & Urassa, Mark & Mwaluko, Gabriel & Zaba, Basia, 2004. "Secretive females or swaggering males?: An assessment of the quality of sexual partnership reporting in rural Tanzania," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 299-310, July.
    9. Hans Hansen, 2000. "An AIDS model with reproduction with an application based on data from Uganda," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 175-203.
    10. Jewkes, Rachel & Vundule, Caesar & Maforah, Fidelia & Jordaan, Esmé, 2001. "Relationship dynamics and teenage pregnancy in South Africa," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 733-744, March.
    11. Laura Porter & Lingxin Hao & David Bishai & David Serwadda & Maria Wawer & Thomas Lutalo & Ronald Gray, 2004. "Hiv status and union dissolution in Sub-saharan Africa: The case of Rakai, Uganda," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(3), pages 465-482, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Black, Samantha & Wallace, Melissa & Middelkoop, Keren & Robbertze, Dante & Bennie, Thola & Wood, Robin & Bekker, Linda-Gail, 2014. "Improving HIV testing amongst adolescents through an integrated Youth Centre rewards program: Insights from South Africa," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 98-105.
    2. Snyder, Kate & Wallace, Melissa & Duby, Zoe & Aquino, Lisa D.H. & Stafford, Stephen & Hosek, Sybil & Futterman, Donna & Bekker, Linda-Gail, 2014. "Preliminary results from Hlanganani (Coming Together): A structured support group for HIV-infected adolescents piloted in Cape Town, South Africa," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 114-121.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    HIV/AIDS; sexual behavior; simulation; South Africa;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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