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Sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa and their association with the spread of HIV: insights from a mathematical model

  • Leigh Johnson

    (University of Cape Town)

  • Rob Dorrington

    (University of Cape Town)

  • Debbie Bradshaw

    (South African Medical Research Council)

  • Victoria Pillay-Van Wyk

    (Human Science Research Council, Cape Town)

  • Thomas Rehle

    (Human Science Research Council, Cape Town)

Registered author(s):

    This paper aims to quantify the effects of different types of sexual risk behaviour on the spread of HIV in South Africa. A mathematical model is developed to simulate changes in numbers of sexual partners, changes in marital status, changes in commercial sex activity and changes in the frequency of unprotected sex over the life course. This is extended to allow for the transmission of HIV, and the model is fitted to South African HIV prevalence data and sexual behaviour data. Results suggest that concurrent partnerships and other non-spousal partnerships are major drivers of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa.

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    File URL: http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol21/11/21-11.pdf
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    Article provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.

    Volume (Year): 21 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 11 (September)
    Pages: 289-340

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    Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:21:y:2009:i:11
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

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    1. Emily Oster, 2005. "Sexually Transmitted Infections, Sexual Behavior, and the HIV/AIDS Epidemic," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 467-515, May.
    2. Laura Porter & Lingxin Hao & David Bishai & David Serwadda & Maria Wawer & Thomas Lutalo & Ronald Gray, 2004. "Hiv status and union dissolution in Sub-saharan Africa: The case of Rakai, Uganda," Demography, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 465-482, August.
    3. Nnko, Soori & Boerma, J.T.J Ties & Urassa, Mark & Mwaluko, Gabriel & Zaba, Basia, 2004. "Secretive females or swaggering males?: An assessment of the quality of sexual partnership reporting in rural Tanzania," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 299-310, July.
    4. Tawfik, Linda & Watkins, Susan Cotts, 2007. "Sex in Geneva, sex in Lilongwe, and sex in Balaka," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 64(5), pages 1090-1101, March.
    5. Jewkes, Rachel & Vundule, Caesar & Maforah, Fidelia & Jordaan, Esmé, 2001. "Relationship dynamics and teenage pregnancy in South Africa," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 733-744, March.
    6. Dunkle, Kristin L. & Jewkes, Rachel K. & Brown, Heather C. & Gray, Glenda E. & McIntryre, James A. & Harlow, Siobán D., 2004. "Transactional sex among women in Soweto, South Africa: prevalence, risk factors and association with HIV infection," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 1581-1592, October.
    7. Eline Korenromp & Carina van Vliet & Roel Bakker & Sake de Vlas & J. Dik & F. Habbema, 2000. "HIV spread and partnership reduction for different patterns of sexual behaviour - a study with the microsimulation model STDSIM," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 135-173.
    8. Eaton, Liberty & Flisher, Alan J. & Aarø, Leif E., 2003. "Unsafe sexual behaviour in South African youth," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 149-165, January.
    9. Leigh F. Johnson & Rob Dorrington, 2006. "Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(22), pages 541-574, June.
    10. Hans Hansen, 2000. "An AIDS model with reproduction with an application based on data from Uganda," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 175-203.
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