An AIDS model with reproduction with an application based on data from Uganda
Many AIDS related population processes are unobservable or very difficult to record, not least in developing countries. Population processes with AIDS tend to be highly complex, moreover. In this paper we present a stochastic one-parent model in continuous time that incorporates heterogeneity and duration dependence in the hazards, the probabilities of transition being established by stochastic microsimulation with time and subsequent life state as the random elements. The model allows for transition between three stages of infection and disease development (HIV negative, HIV positive, and full-blown AIDS). The presentation includes the renewal theory required for obtaining coherent estimates of the stable growth rate and the age structure of multistate populations with AIDS. The basic simulation results in terms of a relational database (two tables) allows of consistent prediction by a wide range of complex demographic processes at the level of individuals and one-parent families. In an example based on recent population data from Uganda HIV positive women are assumed to have fertility rates 20% lower than HIV negative women, while HIV positive women with AIDS in the terminal state have 60% lower fertility. Age-specific mortality rates are assumed to be the same for HIV negative and HIV positive persons until they develop AIDS. The model is then used to study the demographic changes induced by the epidemic, in three scenarios differentiated solely by the level of age-specific risk of infection. Interestingly, the gloomy model-based predictions are not contradicted by the currently available data fragments on population development and AIDS in Uganda.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 8 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/GMPS20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/GMPS20|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:2:p:175-203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.