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A model for geographical variation in health and total life expectancy


  • Peter Congdon

    (Queen Mary University of London)


This paper develops a joint approach to life and health expectancy based on 2001 UK Census data for limiting long term illness and general health status, and on registered death occurrences in 2001. The model takes account of the interdependence of different outcomes (e.g. ill health and mortality) as well as spatial correlation in their patterns. A particular focus is on the proportionality assumption or ‘multiplicative model’ whereby separate age and area effects multiply to produce age-area mortality rates. Alternative non-proportional models are developed and shown to be more parsimonious as well as more appropriate to actual area-age interdependence. The application involves mortality and health status in the 33 London Boroughs.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Congdon, 2006. "A model for geographical variation in health and total life expectancy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(9), pages 157-178, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:14:y:2006:i:9

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ying C. MacNab & C. B. Dean, 2001. "Autoregressive Spatial Smoothing and Temporal Spline Smoothing for Mapping Rates," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 949-956, September.
    2. Smith, Michael & Kohn, Robert, 1996. "Nonparametric regression using Bayesian variable selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 317-343, December.
    3. Geweke, John & Meese, Richard, 1981. "Estimating regression models of finite but unknown order," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 162-162, May.
    4. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    5. Julian Besag & Jeremy York & Annie Mollié, 1991. "Bayesian image restoration, with two applications in spatial statistics," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 43(1), pages 1-20, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ehsan Khoman & James Mitchell & Martin Weale, 2008. "Incidence-based estimates of life expectancy of the healthy for the UK: coherence between transition probabilities and aggregate life-tables," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(1), pages 203-222.
    2. Taylor, Joanna & Twigg, Liz & Moon, Graham, 2014. "The convergent validity of three surveys as alternative sources of health information to the 2011 UK census," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 187-192.

    More about this item


    disease burden; healthy life expectancy; life tables; proportionality assumption; spatial effects;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General


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