IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v14y2006i9.html

A model for geographical variation in health and total life expectancy

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Congdon

    (Queen Mary University of London)

Abstract

This paper develops a joint approach to life and health expectancy based on 2001 UK Census data for limiting long term illness and general health status, and on registered death occurrences in 2001. The model takes account of the interdependence of different outcomes (e.g. ill health and mortality) as well as spatial correlation in their patterns. A particular focus is on the proportionality assumption or ‘multiplicative model’ whereby separate age and area effects multiply to produce age-area mortality rates. Alternative non-proportional models are developed and shown to be more parsimonious as well as more appropriate to actual area-age interdependence. The application involves mortality and health status in the 33 London Boroughs.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Congdon, 2006. "A model for geographical variation in health and total life expectancy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(9), pages 157-178.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:14:y:2006:i:9
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2006.14.9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol14/9/14-9.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2006.14.9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ying C. MacNab & C. B. Dean, 2001. "Autoregressive Spatial Smoothing and Temporal Spline Smoothing for Mapping Rates," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 949-956, September.
    2. Smith, Michael & Kohn, Robert, 1996. "Nonparametric regression using Bayesian variable selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 317-343, December.
    3. Ronald Lee, 2000. "The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, with Various Extensions and Applications," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 80-91.
    4. Geweke, John & Meese, Richard, 1981. "Estimating regression models of finite but unknown order," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 162-162, May.
    5. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    6. Julian Besag & Jeremy York & Annie Mollié, 1991. "Bayesian image restoration, with two applications in spatial statistics," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 43(1), pages 1-20, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ehsan Khoman & James Mitchell & Martin Weale, 2008. "Incidence‐based estimates of life expectancy of the healthy for the UK: coherence between transition probabilities and aggregate life‐tables," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(1), pages 203-222, January.
    2. Taylor, Joanna & Twigg, Liz & Moon, Graham, 2014. "The convergent validity of three surveys as alternative sources of health information to the 2011 UK census," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 187-192.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lanza Queiroz, Bernardo & Lobo Alves Ferreira, Matheus, 2021. "The evolution of labor force participation and the expected length of retirement in Brazil," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    2. Rob Hyndman & Heather Booth & Farah Yasmeen, 2013. "Coherent Mortality Forecasting: The Product-Ratio Method With Functional Time Series Models," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 261-283, February.
    3. Hári, Norbert & De Waegenaere, Anja & Melenberg, Bertrand & Nijman, Theo E., 2008. "Estimating the term structure of mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 492-504, April.
    4. Marius D. Pascariu & Ugofilippo Basellini & José Manuel Aburto & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2020. "The Linear Link: Deriving Age-Specific Death Rates from Life Expectancy," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-18, October.
    5. Reese, Simon, 2015. "Asymptotic Inference in the Lee-Carter Model for Modelling Mortality Rates," Working Papers 2015:16, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    6. Luis E. Nieto-Barajas, 2022. "Bayesian nonparametric dynamic hazard rates in evolutionary life tables," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 319-334, April.
    7. Mason, Carl N. & Miller, Timothy, 2018. "International projections of age specific healthcare consumption: 2015–2060," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 202-217.
    8. Ahbab Mohammad Fazle Rabbi & Stefano Mazzuco, 2021. "Mortality Forecasting with the Lee–Carter Method: Adjusting for Smoothing and Lifespan Disparity," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 97-120, March.
    9. Marie-Pier Bergeron Boucher & Søren Kjærgaard & James E. Oeppen & James W. Vaupel, 2019. "The impact of the choice of life table statistics when forecasting mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(43), pages 1235-1268.
    10. Jia Liu & Jackie Li, 2019. "Beyond the highest life expectancy: construction of proxy upper and lower life expectancy bounds," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 159-181, June.
    11. Koissi, Marie-Claire & Shapiro, Arnold F., 2006. "Fuzzy formulation of the Lee-Carter model for mortality forecasting," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 287-309, December.
    12. Giacometti, Rosella & Bertocchi, Marida & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2012. "A comparison of the Lee–Carter model and AR–ARCH model for forecasting mortality rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 85-93.
    13. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-052 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Njenga Carolyn N & Sherris Michael, 2011. "Longevity Risk and the Econometric Analysis of Mortality Trends and Volatility," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-54, July.
    15. Schrager, David F., 2006. "Affine stochastic mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 81-97, February.
    16. Koissi, Marie-Claire & Shapiro, Arnold F. & Hognas, Goran, 2006. "Evaluating and extending the Lee-Carter model for mortality forecasting: Bootstrap confidence interval," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-20, February.
    17. Paul Doukhan & Joseph Rynkiewicz & Yahia Salhi, 2021. "Optimal Neighborhood Selection for AR-ARCH Random Fields with Application to Mortality," Stats, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-26, December.
    18. Brouhns, Natacha & Denuit, Michel & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2002. "A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 373-393, December.
    19. Jennifer L. Wang & H.C. Huang & Sharon S. Yang & Jeffrey T. Tsai, 2010. "An Optimal Product Mix for Hedging Longevity Risk in Life Insurance Companies: The Immunization Theory Approach," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 473-497, June.
    20. Benchimol, Andrés Gustavo & Albarrán Lozano, Irene & Marín, Juan Miguel & Alonso, Pablo J., 2015. "Hierarchical Lee-Carter model estimation through data cloning applied to demographically linked countries," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1510, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    21. Lydia Dutton & Athanasios A. Pantelous & Malgorzata Seklecka, 2020. "The impact of economic growth in mortality modelling for selected OECD countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 533-550, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:14:y:2006:i:9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.