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A model for geographical variation in health and total life expectancy

  • Peter Congdon

    (Queen Mary London University)

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    This paper develops a joint approach to life and health expectancy based on 2001 UK Census data for limiting long term illness and general health status, and on registered death occurrences in 2001. The model takes account of the interdependence of different outcomes (e.g. ill health and mortality) as well as spatial correlation in their patterns. A particular focus is on the proportionality assumption or ‘multiplicative model’ whereby separate age and area effects multiply to produce age-area mortality rates. Alternative non-proportional models are developed and shown to be more parsimonious as well as more appropriate to actual area-age interdependence. The application involves mortality and health status in the 33 London Boroughs.

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    Article provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.

    Volume (Year): 14 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 9 (March)
    Pages: 157-178

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    Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:14:y:2006:i:9
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    1. Julian Besag & Jeremy York & Annie Mollié, 1991. "Bayesian image restoration, with two applications in spatial statistics," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Geweke, John F & Meese, Richard, 1981. "Estimating Regression Models of Finite but Unknown Order," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(1), pages 55-70, February.
    3. Smith, Michael & Kohn, Robert, 1996. "Nonparametric regression using Bayesian variable selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 317-343, December.
    4. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    5. Ying C. MacNab & C. B. Dean, 2001. "Autoregressive Spatial Smoothing and Temporal Spline Smoothing for Mapping Rates," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 949-956, 09.
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