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Backtesting the Lee–Carter and the Cairns–Blake–Dowd Stochastic Mortality Models on Italian Death Rates

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  • Carlo Maccheroni

    (Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics, Bocconi University, 20100 Milano, Italy
    University of Turin, 10124 Torino, Italy)

  • Samuel Nocito

    (University of Turin, 10124 Torino, Italy)

Abstract

This work proposes a backtesting analysis that compares the Lee–Carter and the Cairns–Blake–Dowd mortality models, employing Italian data. The mortality data come from the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) database and span the period 1975–2014, over which we computed back-projections evaluating the performances of the models compared with real data. We propose three different backtest approaches, evaluating the goodness of short-run forecast versus medium-length ones. We find that neither model was able to capture the improving shock on mortality observed for the male population on the analysed period. Moreover, the results suggest that CBD forecasts are reliable prevalently for ages above 75, and that LC forecasts are basically more accurate for this data.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Maccheroni & Samuel Nocito, 2017. "Backtesting the Lee–Carter and the Cairns–Blake–Dowd Stochastic Mortality Models on Italian Death Rates," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-23, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:5:y:2017:i:3:p:34-:d:103621
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Marie Angèle Cathleen Alijean & Jason Narsoo, 2018. "Evaluation of the Kou-Modified Lee-Carter Model in Mortality Forecasting: Evidence from French Male Mortality Data," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-26, October.
    3. Luca Regis, 2017. "Special Issue “Actuarial and Financial Risks in Life Insurance, Pensions and Household Finance”," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-2, December.
    4. Fabrizio Culotta, 2021. "Life Expectancy Heterogeneity and Pension Fairness: An Italian North-South Divide," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-22, March.
    5. Apostolos Bozikas & Georgios Pitselis, 2018. "An Empirical Study on Stochastic Mortality Modelling under the Age-Period-Cohort Framework: The Case of Greece with Applications to Insurance Pricing," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-34, April.

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