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Forecasting of migration matrices in business demography

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  • Paweł Zając
  • Piotr Gurgul

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that the forecast of migration matrices can be conducted by means of updating procedures, well-known in the I-O theory. The authors use some of the most popular I-O updating procedures (RAS and some non-biproportional approaches) and calculate measures of the ex-post error of predictions. While taking into account the measures of distance between two matrices, a ranking of forecasting methods of migration matrices (forecast horizon one) is established. Finally, the advantages and drawbacks of particular forecasting methods with respect to one-step ex-post forecasts of migration matrices are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Paweł Zając & Piotr Gurgul, 2012. "Forecasting of migration matrices in business demography," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 13(2), pages 387-404, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:csb:stintr:v:13:y:2012:i:2:p:387-404
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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