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Una revisión para el Perú de la relación entre el desempleo, el subempleo y la producción

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  • Enrique Samanamud Valderrama

Abstract

Este artículo examina la relación entre el desempleo y la producción en el Perú entre 1970 y 2018 —denominada comúnmente como Ley de Okun—, a partir de las dos primeras versiones planteadas originalmente por Arthur Okun. Asimismo, se plantea una nueva formulación econométrica que agrega al desempleo el subempleo como variable dependiente, buscando una aproximación a los elevados niveles deempleo precario característicos de economías en desarrollo, que sirven de vía de escape a la población y evitan mayores niveles de desempleo. Finalmente, a los modelos se incorporan variables adicionales al producto que permitan un mejor ajuste. Los resultados evidencian inferiores niveles del coeficiente en comparación con los estimados originalmente para la economía de Estados Unidos y de similares trabajosefectuados para las economías desarrolladas por diversos autores, lo que implica mayores niveles de producto para reducir el desempleo. Además, la reformulación agregada de desempleo con subempleo ayuda a explicar mejor las necesidades de crecimiento de la economía peruana.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique Samanamud Valderrama, 2021. "Una revisión para el Perú de la relación entre el desempleo, el subempleo y la producción," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 13(2), pages 473-511, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000443:019743
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sandrine Cazes & Sher Verick & Fares Al Hussami, 2013. "Why did unemployment respond so differently to the global financial crisis across countries? Insights from Okun’s Law," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Anderton, Robert & Aranki, Ted & Bonthuis, Boele & Jarvis, Valerie, 2014. "Disaggregating Okun's law: decomposing the impact of the expenditure components of GDP on euro area unemployment," Working Paper Series 1747, European Central Bank.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ley de okun; Brecha de producto; Desempleo; Perú; Subempleo;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General

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