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El tipo de cambio real y la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos de largo plazo en Colombia

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  • Santiago Herrera

Abstract

“Este documento pretende averiguar si el actual tipo de cambio real en Colombia es sostenible en el largo plazo, interrogante que debe resolverse conjuntamente con el de si la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos es financiable o no. En este orden de ideas, el trabajo se divide en dos capítulos, siendo el primero el de la cuenta corriente. En este primer capítulo se buscan tres cosas: primero, ver si la economía colombiana se caracteriza por acceso restringido al financiamiento externo; segundo, se examinan qué tipo de decisiones subyacen los déficit en la cuenta corriente, y finalmente se construye un "benchmark" con el cual se compara si el resultado observado es excesivo o no. En el segundo capítulo se estudia el tópico del tipo de cambio real sostenible en el largo plazo utilizando dos enfoques. El primero consistente en el análisis univariado de la serie histórica, descomponiéndola en sus partes cíclica y permanente, interpretando el segundo componente como el de equilibrio alrededor del cual gravita la tasa de cambio rea l observada. El segundo enfoque se basa en el análisis multivariado de los determinantes del tipo de cambio rea l, con el objeto de inferir si la trayectoria observada es una de equilibrio en el sentido de que guarda una correspondencia con el comportamiento de un conjunto de variables que distintos modelos encuentran significativas.”

Suggested Citation

  • Santiago Herrera, 1997. "El tipo de cambio real y la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos de largo plazo en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013532
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/2158
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-174, Summer.
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    5. Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series : Another economical computational method," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 141-142, January.
    6. Sergio Clavijo, 1990. "Productividad laboral, multifactorial y la tasa de cambio real en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 9(17), pages 73-97, June.
    7. Sean Becketti & Gordon H. Sellon, 1989. "Has financial market volatility increased?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 74(Jun), pages 17-30.
    8. Fernando Montes, 1982. "Principales determinantes del comportamiento de la cuenta corriente durante la década," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 1(2), pages 187-255, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Herrera, Santiago, 2000. "Determinantes y composición del endeudamiento público en Colombia," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2110, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Jorge Ramos & Hernán Rincón, 2000. "El Balance Fisacl y el Balance en la Cuenta Corriente en Colombia: Canales de Transmisión y Causalidad," Borradores de Economia 166, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Carlos Esteban Posada, 1999. "Tasa de cambio real y consumo : teoria, evidencia y estudios del caso colombiano, 1950-1997," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 51, pages 7-46, Julio Dic.
    4. Rhenals M., Remberto & Saldarriaga, Juan Pablo, 2007. "Tasa de cambio real y crecimiento económico en Colombia, 1995-2006: una exploración inicial," Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, July.
    5. Leonardo Villar & Hernán Rincón, 2000. "The Colombian Economy in the nineties: Capital Flows and Foreign Exchange Regimes," Borradores de Economia 149, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Santiago Herrera, 2000. "Determinantes y Composición del Endeudamiento Público en Colombia," Research Department Publications 3105, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    7. Santiago Herrera, 1997. "Una evaluación distinta de la situación fiscal colombiana," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tipo de Cambio; Balanza de Pagos; Benchmark; Cointegración; Inversiones; Ahorros; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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