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Wie gefährlich ist die angekündigte Handelspolitik von Donald Trump?

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  • Gabriel Felbermayr
  • Marina Steininger

Abstract

Die Wahl von Donald Trump zum 45. Präsidenten der USA am 8. November 2016 stellt die europäischen Partner vor einige Herausforderungen. Im Wahlkampf hat Trump eine protektionistische Handelspolitik angekündigt, um gegen unliebsame Handelspartner höhere Zoll- und andere Schranken zu errichten. Simulationen mit dem ifo-Handelsmodell zeigen, dass eine Abschottung der USA mit erheblichen Wohlstandsverlusten für das Land verbunden wäre. Das BIP würde um bis zu 9% sinken, wenn die USA Importzölle von 45% und nicht-tarifäre Barrieren von 15% gegenüber allen Handelspartnern erheben und diese mit denselben Hemmnissen zurückschlagen würden. In Deutschland würde der Elektroniksektor aufgrund von Handelsumlenkungen profitieren, der Automobilsektor und der Maschinenbau dann, wenn die USA nur gegenüber China und Mexiko Zölle erheben würden. Die meisten anderen Sektoren würden jedoch verlieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Felbermayr & Marina Steininger, 2016. "Wie gefährlich ist die angekündigte Handelspolitik von Donald Trump?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(22), pages 34-41, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:69:y:2016:i:22:p:34-41
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gabriel Felbermayr & Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch & Erdal Yalcin, 2015. "Macroeconomic potentials of transatlantic free trade: a high resolution perspective for Europe and the world," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(83), pages 491-537.
    2. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland, 2013. "Der Wertschöpfungsgehalt des Außenhandels: Neue Daten, neue Perspektiven," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(05), pages 29-41, March.
    3. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    4. Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    5. Gabriel Felbermayr & Rahel Aichele & Inga Heiland, 2016. "Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP Revised," ifo Working Paper Series 219, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Braml & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2017. "Erwartungen deutscher Unternehmen an Donald Trumps Handelspolitik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(06), pages 61-63, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Außenwirtschaftspolitik; USA; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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