IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v65y2012i01p03-13.html

Eurokrise, Energiewende, Konjunkturabkühlung: Ende des deutschen Jobwunders?

Author

Listed:
  • Dieter Hundt
  • Frank-Jürgen Weise
  • Hagen Lesch
  • Wolfgang Lechthaler
  • Christian Merkl

Abstract

Welche Determinanten sind für das »deutsche Jobwunder« verantwortlich? Dieter Hundt, Bundesvereinigung der Deutschen Arbeitgeberverbände, sieht hinter dem Erfolg das verantwortliche Handeln der Tarifpartner, die Nutzung von Arbeitszeitkonten und richtige politische Entscheidungen etwa beim Kurzarbeitergeld. Dies zeige, dass die Tarifautonomie in Deutschland selbst unter extremen Bedingungen gut funktioniert. Frank-Jürgen Weise, Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Nürnberg, geht davon aus, dass es auch 2012 noch eine positive Entwicklung am Arbeitsmarkt geben wird und die Arbeitslosenzahl unter der Marke von 3 Millionen bleibt. Die gute Arbeitsmarktentwicklung lässt sich nach Ansicht von Hagen Lesch, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln, auf drei Einflüsse zurückführen: auf das Horten von Arbeitskräften während der Krise, auf eine moderate Lohnpolitik und auf die Arbeitsmarktreformen der Jahre 2003 bis 2005. Wolfgang Lechthaler, Institut für Weltwirtschaft, und Christian Merkl, Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, erwarten, unter der Bedingung einer glaubwürdigen Haushaltskonsolidierung in Südeuropa bei gleichzeitiger Reduktion der Leistungsbilanzdefizite, nur moderate rezessive Schocks für Deutschland. Der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt verfüge über die Voraussetzungen, um einen sanften Abschwung zu absorbieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Dieter Hundt & Frank-Jürgen Weise & Hagen Lesch & Wolfgang Lechthaler & Christian Merkl, 2012. "Eurokrise, Energiewende, Konjunkturabkühlung: Ende des deutschen Jobwunders?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(01), pages 03-13, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:01:p:03-13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2012_1_1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik, 2010. "The German Labour Market Miracle," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 214, pages 38-50, October.
    2. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Mario Larch & Wolfgang Lechthaler, 2013. "Unemployment in an Interdependent World," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 262-301, February.
    3. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2010. "Monetary persistence and the labor market: A new perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 968-983, May.
    4. Michael C. Burda & Jennifer Hunt, 2011. "What Explains the German Labor Market Miracle in the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 273-335.
    5. Tito Boeri & Herbert Bruecker, 2011. "Short-time work benefits revisited: some lessons from the Great Recession [‘Reversed roles? Wage and employment effects of the current crisis’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(68), pages 697-765.
    6. Faia, Ester & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2010. "Fiscal Multipliers and the Labour Market in the Open Economy," IZA Discussion Papers 4849, IZA Network @ LISER.
    7. Stähler, Nikolai & Thomas, Carlos, 2012. "FiMod — A DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 239-261.
    8. Snower, Dennis J. & Burmeister, Johannes & Seidel, Moritz, 2011. "Dealing with the eurozone debt crisis: A proposal for reform," Kiel Policy Briefs 33, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    9. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-031 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2019. "The German labor market during the Great Recession: Shocks and institutions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 192-208.
    2. Balleer, Almut & Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2016. "Does short-time work save jobs? A business cycle analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 99-122.
    3. Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2017. "The German labor market in the Great Recession: Shocks and institutions," IAB-Discussion Paper 201714, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Lastauskas, Povilas & Stakėnas, Julius, 2020. "Labor market reforms and the monetary policy environment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Julio G. Fournier Gabela & Luis Sarmiento, 2020. "Kurzarbeit and Natural Disasters: How Effective Are Short-Time Working Allowances in Avoiding Unemployment?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1909, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Holtemöller, Oliver & Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Drygalla, Andrej & Giesen, Sebastian & Hennecke, Peter & Kiesel, Konstantin & Loose, Brigitte & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Zeddies, Götz, 2015. "Ökonomische Wirksamkeit der Konjunktur stützenden finanzpolitischen Maßnahmen der Jahre 2008 und 2009. Forschungsvorhaben im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen," IWH Online 4/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    7. Baumgarten, Daniel & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2017. "Temporary agency work and the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 29-44.
    8. Povilas Lastauskas & Julius Stakenas, 2015. "Global Perspective on Structural Labour Market Reforms in Europe," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 21, Bank of Lithuania.
    9. Christian Merkl & Enzo Weber, 2020. "Raus aus der Neueinstellungskrise! [End the Recruitment Crisis!]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(7), pages 507-509, July.
    10. Dengler, Thomas & Gehrke, Britta, 2021. "Short-Time Work and Precautionary Savings," IZA Discussion Papers 14329, IZA Network @ LISER.
    11. Povilas Lastauskas & Julius Stakénas, 2019. "Does It Matter When Labor Market Reforms Are Implemented? The Role of the Monetary Policy Environment," CESifo Working Paper Series 7844, CESifo.
    12. Dengler, Thomas & Gehrke, Britta & Zessner-Spitzenberg, Leopold, 2024. "Short-Time Work and Precautionary Savings," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 02/2024, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    13. Reamonn Lydon & Thomas Y. Mathä & Stephen Millard, 2019. "Short-time work in the Great Recession: firm-level evidence from 20 EU countries," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-29, December.
    14. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-005 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Kruppe, Thomas & Scholz, Theresa, 2014. "Labour hoarding in Germany : employment effects of short-time work during the crises," IAB-Discussion Paper 201417, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    16. Fabian Bornhorst & Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2012. "Tests of German Resilience," IMF Working Papers 2012/239, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Dennis Tamesberger & Simon Theurl, 2021. "Design and Take-Up of Austria's Coronavirus Short-Time Work Model," ICAE Working Papers 127, Johannes Kepler University, Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy.
    18. Javier Andrés & José E. Boscá & Javier Ferri, 2016. "Instruments, rules, and household debt: the effects of fiscal policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 419-443.
    19. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?," Discussion Papers 41/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Olga Bohachova & Bernhard Boockmann & Claudia M. Buch, 2011. "Labor Demand During the Crisis: What Happened in Germany?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3625, CESifo.
    21. Ellguth, Peter & Gerner, Hans-Dieter & Zapf, Ines, 2018. "Arbeitszeitkonten in Betrieben und Verwaltungen: Flexible Arbeitszeitgestaltung wird immer wichtiger (Flexible working times become more and more important)," IAB-Kurzbericht 201815, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:01:p:03-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.