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Eurokrise, Energiewende, Konjunkturabkühlung: Ende des deutschen Jobwunders?

  • Dieter Hundt
  • Frank-Jürgen Weise
  • Hagen Lesch
  • Wolfgang Lechthaler
  • Christian Merkl

Welche Determinanten sind für das »deutsche Jobwunder« verantwortlich? Dieter Hundt, Bundesvereinigung der Deutschen Arbeitgeberverbände, sieht hinter dem Erfolg das verantwortliche Handeln der Tarifpartner, die Nutzung von Arbeitszeitkonten und richtige politische Entscheidungen etwa beim Kurzarbeitergeld. Dies zeige, dass die Tarifautonomie in Deutschland selbst unter extremen Bedingungen gut funktioniert. Frank-Jürgen Weise, Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Nürnberg, geht davon aus, dass es auch 2012 noch eine positive Entwicklung am Arbeitsmarkt geben wird und die Arbeitslosenzahl unter der Marke von 3 Millionen bleibt. Die gute Arbeitsmarktentwicklung lässt sich nach Ansicht von Hagen Lesch, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln, auf drei Einflüsse zurückführen: auf das Horten von Arbeitskräften während der Krise, auf eine moderate Lohnpolitik und auf die Arbeitsmarktreformen der Jahre 2003 bis 2005. Wolfgang Lechthaler, Institut für Weltwirtschaft, und Christian Merkl, Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, erwarten, unter der Bedingung einer glaubwürdigen Haushaltskonsolidierung in Südeuropa bei gleichzeitiger Reduktion der Leistungsbilanzdefizite, nur moderate rezessive Schocks für Deutschland. Der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt verfüge über die Voraussetzungen, um einen sanften Abschwung zu absorbieren.

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Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 65 (2012)
Issue (Month): 01 (01)
Pages: 03-13

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:01:p:03-13
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  1. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2008. "Monetary Persistence and the Labor Market: A New Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 3513, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Snower, Dennis J. & Burmeister, Johannes & Seidel, Moritz, 2011. "Dealing with the eurozone debt crisis: A proposal for reform," Kiel Policy Brief 33, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  3. Wolfgang Lechthaler & Mario Larch & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2009. "Unemployment in an Interdependent World," 2009 Meeting Papers 596, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Merkl, Christian & Faia, Ester & Lechthaler, Wolfgang, 2010. "Fiscal Multipliers and the Labour Market in the Open Economy," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 37509, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  5. Burda, Michael C. & Hunt, Jennifer, 2011. "What Explains the German Labor Market Miracle in the Great Recession?," IZA Discussion Papers 5800, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe & Dominik Groll & Wolfgang Lechthaler & Christian Merkl, 2010. "The Role of Labor Market Institutions in the Great Recession," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 61(Supplemen), pages 65-88.
  7. Boeri, Tito & Brücker, Herbert, 2011. "Short-Time Work Benefits Revisited: Some Lessons from the Great Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 5635, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Nikolai Stähler & Carlos Thomas, 2011. "FiMod - a DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1110, Banco de Espa�a.
  9. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe & Dominik Groll, 2010. "The German Labour Market Miracle," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 214(1), pages R38-R50, October.
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