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Eurokrise, Energiewende, Konjunkturabkühlung: Ende des deutschen Jobwunders?

Author

Listed:
  • Dieter Hundt
  • Frank-Jürgen Weise
  • Hagen Lesch
  • Wolfgang Lechthaler
  • Christian Merkl

Abstract

Welche Determinanten sind für das »deutsche Jobwunder« verantwortlich? Dieter Hundt, Bundesvereinigung der Deutschen Arbeitgeberverbände, sieht hinter dem Erfolg das verantwortliche Handeln der Tarifpartner, die Nutzung von Arbeitszeitkonten und richtige politische Entscheidungen etwa beim Kurzarbeitergeld. Dies zeige, dass die Tarifautonomie in Deutschland selbst unter extremen Bedingungen gut funktioniert. Frank-Jürgen Weise, Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Nürnberg, geht davon aus, dass es auch 2012 noch eine positive Entwicklung am Arbeitsmarkt geben wird und die Arbeitslosenzahl unter der Marke von 3 Millionen bleibt. Die gute Arbeitsmarktentwicklung lässt sich nach Ansicht von Hagen Lesch, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln, auf drei Einflüsse zurückführen: auf das Horten von Arbeitskräften während der Krise, auf eine moderate Lohnpolitik und auf die Arbeitsmarktreformen der Jahre 2003 bis 2005. Wolfgang Lechthaler, Institut für Weltwirtschaft, und Christian Merkl, Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, erwarten, unter der Bedingung einer glaubwürdigen Haushaltskonsolidierung in Südeuropa bei gleichzeitiger Reduktion der Leistungsbilanzdefizite, nur moderate rezessive Schocks für Deutschland. Der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt verfüge über die Voraussetzungen, um einen sanften Abschwung zu absorbieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Dieter Hundt & Frank-Jürgen Weise & Hagen Lesch & Wolfgang Lechthaler & Christian Merkl, 2012. "Eurokrise, Energiewende, Konjunkturabkühlung: Ende des deutschen Jobwunders?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(01), pages 03-13, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:01:p:03-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe & Dominik Groll, 2010. "The German Labour Market Miracle," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 214(1), pages 38-50, October.
    2. Tito Boeri & Herbert Bruecker, 2011. "Short‐time work benefits revisited: some lessons from the Great Recession," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(68), pages 697-765, October.
    3. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Mario Larch & Wolfgang Lechthaler, 2013. "Unemployment in an Interdependent World," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 262-301, February.
    4. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2010. "Monetary persistence and the labor market: A new perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 968-983, May.
    5. Michael C. Burda & Jennifer Hunt, 2011. "What Explains the German Labor Market Miracle in the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 273-335.
    6. Faia, Ester & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2010. "Fiscal Multipliers and the Labour Market in the Open Economy," IZA Discussion Papers 4849, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    7. Stähler, Nikolai & Thomas, Carlos, 2012. "FiMod — A DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 239-261.
    8. Snower, Dennis J. & Burmeister, Johannes & Seidel, Moritz, 2011. "Dealing with the eurozone debt crisis: A proposal for reform," Kiel Policy Brief 33, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    9. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe & Dominik Groll & Wolfgang Lechthaler & Christian Merkl, 2010. "The Role of Labor Market Institutions in the Great Recession," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 61(Supplemen), pages 65-88.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arbeitsmarkt; Arbeitsmarktflexibilität; Deutschland;

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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