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Zur Diskussion gestellt: Ungleichgewichte im Außenhandel: Wie können Handelsbilanzsalden abgebaut werden?

Author

Listed:
  • Rolf J. Langhammer
  • Felix Mihram
  • Nikolaus Wolf
  • Volker Nitsch

Abstract

Im Rahmen der Diskussion, wie die wirtschaftlichen Schwierigkeiten Europas, insbesondere der Eurozone, zu bewältigen sind, wurde die Forderung nach einem Abbau von Leistungsbilanzüberschüssen laut. Nach Ansicht von Rolf J. Langhammer, Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel, spricht vieles dafür, dass sich Ungleichgewichte in den nächsten Jahren trendmäßig zurückbilden werden. Es bedürfe also keiner interventionistischen Maßnahme im Handel oder Kapitalverkehr gegen Ungleichgewichte. Strafzölle gegen chinesische Exporte, wie sie Krugman für die USA fordert, wären absolut fehl am Platz. Es sei aber wichtig, die Bilanzen richtig zu stellen, indem der Handel auf Wertschöpfungsbasis erfasst und die Bedeutung der grenzüberschreitenden Wertschöpfungsketten für Produktivitätsfortschritte in den Partnerländern sichtbar werde. Felix Mihram und Nikolaus Wolf, Humboldt- Universität zu Berlin, gehen davon aus, dass sich die extremen Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte durch Preissteigerungen in Deutschland und deflationäre Tendenzen in den Defizitstaaten auch ohne weitere politische Intervention etwas abschwächen werden. Allerdings könnte im Hinblick auf die aktuelle Schuldenkrise in einigen Eurostaaten eine befristete Intervention der Überschussländer, etwa Deutschland gemeinsam mit den Niederlanden, zur Stabilisierung des Euro sinnvoll sein, die zugleich auch zum Abbau von Leistungsbilanzüberschüssen beitragen würde. Volker Nitsch, Technische Universität Darmstadt, verweist darauf, dass die unwiderrufliche Fixierung der nominalen Wechselkurse im Euroraum mit größeren und länger andauernden Handelsbilanzungleichgewichten verbunden ist. Gleichzeitig tragen in einer Währungsunion strukturelle Reformen, die Märkte flexibler gestalten, die Volatilität der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung dämpfen oder das Haushaltdefizit reduzieren, zu einer Vermeidung von Ungleichgewichten im Außenhandel bei.

Suggested Citation

  • Rolf J. Langhammer & Felix Mihram & Nikolaus Wolf & Volker Nitsch, 2010. "Zur Diskussion gestellt: Ungleichgewichte im Außenhandel: Wie können Handelsbilanzsalden abgebaut werden?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(24), pages 03-13, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:63:y:2010:i:24:p:03-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2008. "Zooming out: The trade effect of the euro in historical perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1244-1260, December.
    2. Mr. Helge Berger & Volker Nitsch, 2010. "The Euro’s Effecton Trade Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 2010/226, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Helge Berger & Volker Nitsch, 2011. "Inflexibilities and Trade Imbalances: Evidence from Europe," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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