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Un indicateur de croissance à court terme au Royaume-Uni

Author

Listed:
  • Françoise Charpin
  • Catherine Mathieu

Abstract

This paper presents a new leading indicator of UK output growth. The purpose of the indicator is to forecast quarterly GDP growth over a two-quarter horizon, using industrial production, capacity utilisation, the retail sales index, a wholesale trade survey factor, a financial survey factor and short-term interest rates. The indicator is built on a two-step regression-based approach. First, we estimate an equation for the quarterly GDP growth rate based on coincident and leading series. Second, we estimate monthly and/or quarterly equations which will be used to forecast the coincident and leading series showing a lead of up to six months. This enables us to predict GDP growth for the current and coming quarters. We check that the indicator would have produced reasonable forecasts over the last four years. JEL Code: E37.

Suggested Citation

  • Françoise Charpin & Catherine Mathieu, 2004. "Un indicateur de croissance à court terme au Royaume-Uni," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 89(2), pages 231-251.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_089_0231
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    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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