IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/revmkt/v4y2006i1p1-41n1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Empirical Real-Time Test for Takeoff with Applications to Cellular Telephony

Author

Listed:
  • Wiorkowski John J

    (UT Dallas, wiorkow@utdallas.edu)

  • Gylys Victoria A

    (Consultant, Dallas, TX, vgylys@aol.com)

Abstract

No methodology exists to aid the manager in empirically identifying a takeoff event in a real-time. This paper addresses this problem by developing generally applicable, simple and empirical tests for the determination of the takeoff point of a growth curve. The tests are applied to the adoption of wireless cellular telephony across 40 countries. The tests are shown to provide useful insight into the temporal development and dissemination of this technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Wiorkowski John J & Gylys Victoria A, 2006. "An Empirical Real-Time Test for Takeoff with Applications to Cellular Telephony," Review of Marketing Science, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-41, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:revmkt:v:4:y:2006:i:1:p:1-41:n:1
    DOI: 10.2202/1546-5616.1036
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2202/1546-5616.1036
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2202/1546-5616.1036?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. V. Kumar & Trichy V. Krishnan, 2002. "Multinational Diffusion Models: An Alternative Framework," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(3), pages 318-330, July.
    2. Peter N. Golder & Gerard J. Tellis, 1997. "Will It Every Fly? Modeling the Takeoff of Really New Consumer Durables," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(3), pages 256-270.
    3. Manova, Shalom, et al, 1998. "Mass Market Entry of Wireless Telecommunications," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 7(4), pages 679-694, December.
    4. Hubert Gatignon & Jehoshua Eliashberg & Thomas S. Robertson, 1989. "Modeling Multinational Diffusion Patterns: An Efficient Methodology," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 8(3), pages 231-247.
    5. Gerard J. Tellis & Stefan Stremersch & Eden Yin, 2003. "The International Takeoff of New Products: The Role of Economics, Culture, and Country Innovativeness," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(2), pages 188-208, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Towhidul Islam & Nigel Meade, 2011. "Detecting the impact of market factors on sales takeoff times of analog cellular telephones," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 197-212, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van Everdingen, Y.M. & Fok, D. & Stremersch, S., 2008. "Modeling Global Spill-Over of New Product Takeoff," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-067-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    2. Deepa Chandrasekaran & Gerard J. Tellis, 2008. "Global Takeoff of New Products: Culture, Wealth, or Vanishing Differences?," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(5), pages 844-860, 09-10.
    3. Peres, Renana & Muller, Eitan & Mahajan, Vijay, 2010. "Innovation diffusion and new product growth models: A critical review and research directions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 91-106.
    4. Peters, Kay & Albers, Sönke & Kumar, V., 2008. "Is there more to international Diffusion than Culture? An investigation on the Role of Marketing and Industry Variables," EconStor Preprints 27678, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Laciana, Carlos E. & Rovere, Santiago L. & Podestá, Guillermo P., 2013. "Exploring associations between micro-level models of innovation diffusion and emerging macro-level adoption patterns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(8), pages 1873-1884.
    6. Swinerd, Chris & McNaught, Ken R., 2015. "Comparing a simulation model with various analytic models of the international diffusion of consumer technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 330-343.
    7. Ashish Sood & Gareth M. James & Gerard J. Tellis, 2009. "Functional Regression: A New Model for Predicting Market Penetration of New Products," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(1), pages 36-51, 01-02.
    8. Stremersch, S. & Lemmens, A., 2008. "Sales Growth of New Pharmaceuticals Across the Globe: The Role of Regulatory Regimes," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-026-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    9. Donald Lehmann & Mercedes Esteban-Bravo, 2006. "When giving some away makes sense to jump-start the diffusion process," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 243-254, December.
    10. Gelper, Sarah & Stremersch, Stefan, 2014. "Variable selection in international diffusion models," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 356-367.
    11. van den Bulte, C. & Stremersch, S., 2003. "Contagion and heterogeneity in new product diffusion: An emperical test," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2003-077-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    12. Stefan Stremersch & Aurélie Lemmens, 2009. "Sales Growth of New Pharmaceuticals Across the Globe: The Role of Regulatory Regimes," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(4), pages 690-708, 07-08.
    13. Peter N. Golder & Gerard J. Tellis, 2004. "Growing, Growing, Gone: Cascades, Diffusion, and Turning Points in the Product Life Cycle," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 207-218, December.
    14. Towhidul Islam & Nigel Meade, 2011. "Detecting the impact of market factors on sales takeoff times of analog cellular telephones," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 197-212, June.
    15. John Hauser & Gerard J. Tellis & Abbie Griffin, 2006. "Research on Innovation: A Review and Agenda for," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 687-717, 11-12.
    16. Christophe Van den Bulte & Stefan Stremersch, 2004. "Social Contagion and Income Heterogeneity in New Product Diffusion: A Meta-Analytic Test," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 530-544, July.
    17. Nikolaos E. Petridis & Georgios Digkas & Leonidas Anastasakis, 2020. "Factors affecting innovation and imitation of ICT in the agrifood sector," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 294(1), pages 501-514, November.
    18. Zaid Ahmad Ansari, 2014. "The Relationship between Religiosity and New Product Adoption among Muslim Consumers," International Journal of Management Sciences, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(6), pages 249-259.
    19. Tal Garber & Jacob Goldenberg & Barak Libai & Eitan Muller, 2004. "From Density to Destiny: Using Spatial Dimension of Sales Data for Early Prediction of New Product Success," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(3), pages 419-428, August.
    20. Verdiana Giannetti & Gaia Rubera, 2020. "Innovation for and from emerging countries: a closer look at the antecedents of trickle-down and reverse innovation," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 48(5), pages 987-1008, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:revmkt:v:4:y:2006:i:1:p:1-41:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.