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An Analysis of Curling Strategy

Author

Listed:
  • Clement David

    (Smartodds Ltd.)

Abstract

This paper addresses two important strategic questions in the sport of curling, namely (i) when it is best to blank rather than take one point, and (ii) when entering the final end, is it preferable to be winning by one point without last rock advantage or be losing by one point with last rock advantage. A multinomial logistic regression for end score probabilities and a Markov model for game win probabilities are introduced to answer both of the questions of interest. An asymptotic sampling procedure is used for statistical inference. The paper also updates and expands the data used in the previously published empirical curling analyses to take account of an important rule change.

Suggested Citation

  • Clement David, 2012. "An Analysis of Curling Strategy," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:8:y:2012:i:3:n:9
    DOI: 10.1515/1559-0410.1500
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keith A. Willoughby & Kent J. Kostuk, 2004. "Preferred Scenarios in the Sport of Curling," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 34(2), pages 117-122, April.
    2. Keith A. Willoughby & Kent J. Kostuk, 2005. "An Analysis of a Strategic Decision in the Sport of Curling," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 58-63, March.
    3. Alexander Shapiro & Jos Berge, 2002. "Statistical inference of minimum rank factor analysis," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 67(1), pages 79-94, March.
    4. Kostuk, Kent J. & Willoughby, Keith A. & Saedt, Anton P. H., 2001. "Modelling curling as a Markov process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 133(3), pages 557-565, September.
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