IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/jbvela/v3y2008i1n3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is The Mergerstat Control Premium Overstated?

Author

Listed:
  • Jordan Dan

    (Golden Gate University)

  • Hoppe Paul

    (Golden Gate University)

Abstract

This paper examines a random sample of 100 acquisitions of U.S. target firms acquired between the first quarter of 1999 through the first quarter of 2003 comparing the ``Control Premium" reported by Mergerstat/Shannon Pratt's Control Premium StudyTM to a comparable ``Abnormal Return" calculated using established academic ``event study" methodology. One of the differences between the Mergerstat methodology and the event study methodology is the removal of general market movements from the total stock return to arrive at the abnormal return while no such adjustments are made to the Mergerstat control premium.The ``Control Premium" reported by Mergerstat averaged 49.02% compared to 53.64% calculated using the event study methodology, a difference of -4.62%. During the event periods, the S&P 500 Index experienced a -4.45% average change, accounting for 96% of the difference in average result between the two methods. However, when the sample is split between up and down market periods, anomalies appear.An analysis of the up market periods reveals an average event study abnormal return of 59.97% compared to a 34.95% average Mergerstat Control Premium. This 25% difference is explained by Mergerstat's methodology understating the ``run-up" of target firms' stock prices prior to the acquisition announcement.

Suggested Citation

  • Jordan Dan & Hoppe Paul, 2008. "Is The Mergerstat Control Premium Overstated?," Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-13, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jbvela:v:3:y:2008:i:1:n:3
    DOI: 10.2202/1932-9156.1013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2202/1932-9156.1013
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2202/1932-9156.1013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gupta, Atul & Misra, Lalatendu, 1988. "Illegal Insider Trading: Is It Rampant before Corporate Takeovers?," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 453-464, November.
    2. Schwert, G. William, 1996. "Markup pricing in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 153-192, June.
    3. Fama, Eugene F, et al, 1969. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, February.
    4. Binder, John J, 1998. "The Event Study Methodology since 1969," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 111-137, September.
    5. Barclay, Michael J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1993. "Stealth trading and volatility : Which trades move prices?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-305, December.
    6. Keown, Arthur J & Pinkerton, John M, 1981. "Merger Announcements and Insider Trading Activity: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 855-869, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dan Jordan & Donald Wort, 2009. "A test of bear market mergerstat control premiums," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 27-36, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dan Jordan & Donald Wort, 2009. "A test of bear market mergerstat control premiums," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 27-36, July.
    2. Styliani Panetsidou & Angelos Synapis & Ioannis Tsalavoutas, 2022. "Price run-ups and insider trading laws under different regulatory environments," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 601-639, August.
    3. Kanungo, Rama Prasad, 2021. "Uncertainty of M&As under asymmetric estimation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 774-793.
    4. Jeff Madura & Thanh Ngo & Jurica Susnjara, 2014. "Information leakages and the costs of merging in Europe," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(8), pages 515-532, April.
    5. Szymon Okoń, 2012. "Investor Reaction to Mandatory Offers on the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 6(2), June.
    6. Timm O. Sprenger & Philipp G. Sandner & Andranik Tumasjan & Isabell M. Welpe, 2014. "News or Noise? Using Twitter to Identify and Understand Company-specific News Flow," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(7-8), pages 791-830, September.
    7. Rebecca Pham & Marcel Ausloos, 2022. "Insider trading in the run‐up to merger announcements. Before and after the UK's Financial Services Act 2012," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3373-3385, July.
    8. Arturo Bris, 1998. "When Do Bidders Purchase a Toehold? Theory and Tests," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm107, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2000.
    9. Jeff Madura & Marek Marciniak, 2014. "Characteristics of takeover targets that trigger insider trading investigations," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Brigida, Matthew & Madura, Jeff, 2012. "Sources of target stock price run-up prior to acquisitions," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 185-198.
    11. Prusak Błażej & Potrykus Marcin, 2022. "Stock price reaction to an arrangement approval in restructuring proceedings – the case of Poland," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 58(3), pages 279-298, September.
    12. Bris, Arturo, 2002. "Toeholds, takeover premium, and the probability of being acquired," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 227-253, July.
    13. Inga Chira & Jeff Madura, 2013. "Impact Of The Galleon Case On Informed Trading Before Merger Announcements," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 325-346, September.
    14. Ngo, Thanh & Susnjara, Jurica, 2016. "Hostility and deal completion likelihood in international acquisitions: The moderating effect of information leakage," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 42-56.
    15. Fan, Ying & Jia, Jun-Jun & Wang, Xin & Xu, Jin-Hua, 2017. "What policy adjustments in the EU ETS truly affected the carbon prices?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 145-164.
    16. Xu, Mingli & Yang, Wei & Huang, Zhixiong, 2021. "Do investor relations matter in the tourism industry? Evidence from public opinions in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 923-933.
    17. Furdui Călin & Șfabu Dorina Teodora, 2023. "The European Banks Under the Shock of the Russian Invasion of 2022: An Event Study Approach," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 68(1), pages 62-77, April.
    18. Berna Karali & Walter N. Thurman, 2009. "Announcement effects and the theory of storage: an empirical study of lumber futures," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(4), pages 421-436, July.
    19. David M. Goldberg & Jason K. Deane & Terry R. Rakes & Loren Paul Rees, 2022. "3D Printing Technology and the Market Value of the Firm," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 1379-1392, August.
    20. Capelle-Blancard, Gunther & Couderc, Nicolas, 2008. "What drives the market value of firms in the defense industry," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 14-32.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:jbvela:v:3:y:2008:i:1:n:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.