IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/glecon/v14y2014i2p15n2.html

Common Trends and Common Cycles in Oil Price and Real Exchange Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Basnet Hem C.

    (Department of Business, Chadron State College, 1000 Main St., Chadron, NE, USA)

  • Vatsa Puneet

    (Shaw Communication Inc., Calgary, AB, Canada)

  • Sharma Subhash

    (Department of Economics, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL, USA)

Abstract

This study explores the long- and short-run movement between oil prices and the real exchange rates of two large oil-exporting countries – Canada and Norway. Cointegration and serial correlation common features tests are jointly used to identify the long-term common trend and short-term common cycles. Our test results find that oil prices and the real exchange rates of the Canadian Dollar and the Norwegian Krone have two shared trends and one shared cycle. The trend–cycle decomposition shows a great deal of positive comovement among the trend and cyclical components. The two currencies show economic dynamics very similar to crude oil prices. They do not exhibit any qualitative differences in the trajectory of the trend and cycles when controlling for different crude oil prices. Our results indicate that oil price fluctuations play significant role in explaining the exchange rate movements of oil-exporting countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Basnet Hem C. & Vatsa Puneet & Sharma Subhash, 2014. "Common Trends and Common Cycles in Oil Price and Real Exchange Rate," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 249-263, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:14:y:2014:i:2:p:15:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/gej-2013-0042
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/gej-2013-0042
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/gej-2013-0042?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. F. Vahid & R. F. Engle, 1993. "Common Trends And Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-360, October.
    2. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2010. "Oil price dynamics and speculation: A multivariate financial approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 363-372, March.
    3. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2002. "Oil prices and Spanish competitiveness: A cointegrated panel analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 591-605, October.
    4. Yousefi, Ayoub & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2004. "The empirical role of the exchange rate on the crude-oil price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 783-799, September.
    5. Domenico Ferraro & Ken Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 11-05, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    6. Wu, Chih-Chiang & Chung, Huimin & Chang, Yu-Hsien, 2012. "The economic value of co-movement between oil price and exchange rate using copula-based GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 270-282.
    7. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Kalamova, Margarita Manolova, 2007. "Are there oil currencies? The real exchange rate of oil exporting countries," Working Paper Series 839, European Central Bank.
    8. Ramzi Issa & Robert Lafrance & John Murray, 2006. "The Turning Black Tide: Energy Prices and the Canadian Dollar," Staff Working Papers 06-29, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Vatsa, Puneet, 2020. "Comovement amongst the demand for New Zealand tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Vatsa, Puneet & Basnet, Hem C., 2020. "The dynamics of energy prices and the Norwegian economy: A common trends and common cycles analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Bassam A. Ibrahim & Ahmed A. Elamer & Hussein A. Abdou, 2025. "The role of cryptocurrencies in predicting oil prices pre and during COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 345(2), pages 909-952, February.
    3. Maud Korley & Evangelos Giouvris, 2022. "The Impact of Oil Price and Oil Volatility Index (OVX) on the Exchange Rate in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Oil Importing/Exporting Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-29, November.
    4. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2013. "A wavelet decomposition approach to crude oil price and exchange rate dependence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-57.
    5. Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Zebende, Gilney F., 2014. "Oil and US dollar exchange rate dependence: A detrended cross-correlation approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 132-139.
    6. Yang, Lu & Cai, Xiao Jing & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2018. "What determines the long-term correlation between oil prices and exchange rates?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 140-152.
    7. Chen, Wei-Peng & Choudhry, Taufiq & Wu, Chih-Chiang, 2013. "The extreme value in crude oil and US dollar markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 191-210.
    8. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    9. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Oil prices and effective dollar exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 621-636.
    10. Luká? Frýd, 2017. "A wavelet transformation approach to crude oil price and CZK/USD exchange rate dependence," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 4507429, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    11. Tatiana K. Blokhina & Oksana A. Karpenko & Andrey V. Guirinskiy, 2016. "The Relationship between Oil Prices and Exchange Rate in Russia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 6(4), pages 721-726.
    12. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2014. "The symmetrical and positive relationship between crude oil and nominal exchange rate returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 266-284.
    13. Tayfur Bayat & Saban Nazlioglu & Selim Kayhan, 2015. "Exchange Rate and Oil Price Interactions in Transition Economies: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(3), pages 267-285, June.
    14. Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "A comparative analysis of the dynamic relationship between oil prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 397-414.
    15. Salisu, Afees A. & Mobolaji, Hakeem, 2013. "Modeling returns and volatility transmission between oil price and US–Nigeria exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 169-176.
    16. Jia Liao & Yu Shi & Xiangyun Xu, 2018. "Why Is the Correlation between Crude Oil Prices and the US Dollar Exchange Rate Time-Varying?—Explanations Based on the Role of Key Mediators," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-13, June.
    17. Benjamin Ighodalo Ehikioya & Alexander Ehimare Omankhanlen & Ayopo Abiola Babajide & Godswill Osagie Osuma & Cordelia Onyinyechi Omodero, 2020. "Oil Price Fluctuations and Exchange Rate in Selected Sub-Saharan Africa countries: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 10(6), pages 242-249.
    18. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 419-440.
    19. Youssef, Manel & Mokni, Khaled, 2020. "Modeling the relationship between oil and USD exchange rates: Evidence from a regime-switching-quantile regression approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    20. Fenghua Wen & Jihong Xiao & Chuangxia Huang & Xiaohua Xia, 2018. "Interaction between oil and US dollar exchange rate: nonlinear causality, time-varying influence and structural breaks in volatility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 319-334, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:14:y:2014:i:2:p:15:n:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyterbrill.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.