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Precise performance: Do citizens rely on numerical precision as a cue of confidence?

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  • Asmus Leth Olsen

    (University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

Recent research suggests that precise numbers signal confidence and are more potent anchors. This idea runs counter to the emphasis on simplicity in the presentation of performance numbers found in performance management and measurement research. Regardless, political-administrative systems are dominated by numerical information when it comes to evaluating performance or setting future performance goals. This article presents a set of experiments that test how well the precision effect translates in a political-administrative setting (n=1,505). The findings provide no convincing evidence of a precision effect. Citizens’ evaluation of performance numbers seem to be largely unaffected by the roundness or precision of their numerical value. This is the case even if the numerical information is presented without any explicit political cues or are framed as non-manipulative expert judgments.

Suggested Citation

  • Asmus Leth Olsen, 2018. "Precise performance: Do citizens rely on numerical precision as a cue of confidence?," Journal of Behavioral Public Administration, Center for Experimental and Behavioral Public Administration, vol. 1(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:bpd:articl:v:1:y:2018:i:1:jbpa.11.19
    DOI: 10.30636/jbpa.11.19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pedersen, Rasmus T., 2017. "Politicians Appear More Competent When Using Numerical Rhetoric," Journal of Experimental Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 129-150, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aaron Deslatte, 2019. "A bayesian approach for behavioral public administration: Citizen assessments of local government sustainability performance," Journal of Behavioral Public Administration, Center for Experimental and Behavioral Public Administration, vol. 2(1).
    2. Oliver James & Gregg G. Van Ryzin, 2019. "Rates and the Judgment of Government Performance," Journal of Behavioral Public Administration, Center for Experimental and Behavioral Public Administration, vol. 2(2).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • Z00 - Other Special Topics - - General - - - General
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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