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Does Exchange Rate Have Asymmetric Impact On Trade Balance? Fresh Insights From Combined Cointegration

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  • SOLOMON PRINCE Nathaniel

    (University of Lagos, Akoka, Nigeria)

Abstract

The study examines the asymmetric impact of exchange rate on the trade balance in Nigeria relying of time series data that spans 1960-2016. The Non-linear ARDL bounds test and the Bayer and Hanck (2013) test established a cointegrating relationship among the variables after accounting for structural break in the series. The Block Exogeneity Wald Tests affirmed the bidirectional causality between the variables. Findings establish the asymmetric impact of exchange rate on the trade balance in Nigeria, but unable to confirm the existence of the J-curve Phenomenon. This reveals that the devaluation of the Naira may not be a viable decision if the intention is to curb the persistent deficit in the country’s trade balance. Policies that could help curtail these deficits and enhance sustainable growth were suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • SOLOMON PRINCE Nathaniel, 2020. "Does Exchange Rate Have Asymmetric Impact On Trade Balance? Fresh Insights From Combined Cointegration," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 15(1), pages 259-269, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:blg:journl:v:15:y:2020:i:1:p:259-269
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    2. Yaya KEHO, 2021. "Asymmetric Effects of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in Cote d’Ivoire: Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 9-21, May.
    3. Homamul Islam, 2021. "Evaluating the Persistence of j Curve Phenomenon in the Bilateral Trade between Bangladesh and USA: The ARDL Bounds Testing Approach and Granger Causality Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 7(2), pages 74-81, 06-2021.

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