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The South Africa‐U.S. Trade and the Real Exchange Rate: Asymmetric Evidence from 25 Industries

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  • Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee
  • Abera Gelan

Abstract

Previous studies that assessed the effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance of South Africa assumed that the effects are symmetric. In this paper we violate that assumption and assess the asymmetric effects of the real rand‐dollar rate on the trade balance of 25 2‐digit industries that trade between South Africa and the U.S. We find short‐run asymmetric effects in a total of 19 industries but short‐run cumulative or impact asymmetric effects only on five industries. Short‐run asymmetric effects lasted into long‐run asymmetric effects on 14 industries. Further analysis revealed industries that will benefit from rand depreciation and those that will be hurt from rand appreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Abera Gelan, 2020. "The South Africa‐U.S. Trade and the Real Exchange Rate: Asymmetric Evidence from 25 Industries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 186-203, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:88:y:2020:i:2:p:186-203
    DOI: 10.1111/saje.12242
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