IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/rdevec/v12y2008i3p605-619.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in New EU Members: External Imbalances versus Real Convergence

Author

Listed:
  • Enrique Alberola
  • Daniel Navia

Abstract

In new EU members, the accumulation of net foreign liabilities has gone hand‐in‐hand with real exchange rate appreciations, contrary to intuition. This may be due to the induced effect that capital inflows on productivity and competitiveness (Balassa‐Samuelson effect). An extended empirical model comprising relative productivity and net foreign assets is well‐suited to capture this indirect, opposite effect of liabilities accumulation on the equilibrium exchange rates for the three largest economies: Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. The model makes it possible to estimate equilibrium exchange rates and misalignments. Going forward, sustaining high productivity growth will be essential to ensure a smooth transition towards euro membership.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique Alberola & Daniel Navia, 2008. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in New EU Members: External Imbalances versus Real Convergence," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 605-619, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:12:y:2008:i:3:p:605-619
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9361.2008.00475.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2008.00475.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2008.00475.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kateřina Šmídková & Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2003. "Estimates of fundamental real exchange rates for the five eu pre-accession countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(4), pages 291-315.
    2. Sebastian Edwards, 1988. "The Determination of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," UCLA Economics Working Papers 508, UCLA Department of Economics.
    3. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Korhonen, Iikka, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in transition countries: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 144-162, June.
    4. Ron Alquist & Menzie D. Chinn, 2002. "Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2003_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jörg Rahn, 2003. "Bilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rates of the EU Accession Countries against the Euro," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20306, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    8. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2003. "On the long-run determinants of real exchange rates for developing countries : Evidence from Africa, Latin America and Asia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-571, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    9. Enrique Alberola & Daniel Navia, 2007. "Equilibrium exchange rates in the new EU members: external imbalances vs. real convergence," Working Papers 0708, Banco de España.
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:2002_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lopcu, Kenan & Dülger, Fikret & Burgaç, Almıla, 2013. "Relative productivity increases and the appreciation of the Turkish lira," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 614-621.
    2. Przystupa, Jan, 2009. "Approaching a problem of the long-run real equilibrium exchange rate of Polish zloty while entering the ERM-2 and Euro zone," MPRA Paper 19549, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Noha Razek, 2023. "Oil and Non-Oil Determinants of Saudi Arabia’s International Competitiveness: Historical Analysis and Policy Simulations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-39, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 232-252, May.
    2. Égert, Balázs, 2004. "Assessing equilibrium exchange rates in CEE acceding countries: can we have DEER with BEER without FEER? A critical survey of the literature," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2004, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    3. Jesús Crespo‐Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 395-416, April.
    4. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    5. Joanna Beza-Bojanowska, 2009. "The Behavioural Zloty/Euro Equilibrium Exchange Rate," NBP Working Papers 55, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    6. Candelon, B. & Kool, C.J.M. & Raabe, K. & van Veen, A.P., 2005. "The feasibility of a fixed exchange rate regime for new EU-members: evidence from real exchange rates," Research Memorandum 011, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    7. Egert, Balazs & Halpern, Laszlo, 2006. "Equilibrium exchange rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A meta-regression analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1359-1374, May.
    8. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2005_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Horvath, Roman & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in EU New Members: Applicable for Setting the ERM II Central Parity?," MPRA Paper 1180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "The Monetary Approach to Exchange Rates in the CEECs Relations and Output Performance," Vienna Economics Papers 0313, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    13. Frait, Jan & Komarek, Lubos & Melecky, Martin, 2006. "The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Five Central European Countries," Economic Research Papers 269632, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    14. Alper, Ahmet Murat & Civcir, İrfan, 2012. "Can overvaluation prelude to crisis and harm growth in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-131.
    15. Candelon, Bertrand & Kool, Clemens & Raabe, Katharina & van Veen, Tom, 2007. "Long-run real exchange rate determinants: Evidence from eight new EU member states, 1993-2003," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 87-107, March.
    16. Lukasz Rawdanowicz, 2003. "The EMU Enlargement and the Choice of the Euro Conversion Rates: Theoretical and Empirical Issues," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0269, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    17. Jörg Rahn, 2004. "Bilaterial equilibrium exchange rates of EU accession countries against the euro," Macroeconomics 0401010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Hernán Herrera-Echeverri & Jerry Haar & Alexander Arrieta Jiménez & Manuel Araújo Zapata, 2015. "Devaluation, Competitiveness And New Business Formation In Emerging Countries," Journal of Developmental Entrepreneurship (JDE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(03), pages 1-22, September.
    19. repec:zbw:bofitp:2003_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2014-12, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    21. Jean-Jacques Herings & Gerard van der Laan & Dolf Talman & Zaifu Yang, 2004. "A Fixed Point Theorem for Discontinuous Functions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-004/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    22. Balazs Egert & Amina Lahrèche-Révil & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2004. "The Stock-Flow Approach to the Real Exchange Rate of CEE Transition Economies," Working Papers 2004-15, CEPII research center.
    23. Frenkel Michael & Koske Isabell, 2012. "Are the Real Exchange Rates of the New EU Member Countries in Line with Fundamentals? – Implications of the NATREX Approach," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(2), pages 129-145, April.
    24. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Measuring the dollar–euro permanent equilibrium exchange rate using the unobserved components model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 20-35.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:12:y:2008:i:3:p:605-619. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1363-6669 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.