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Do Conditional Cash Transfers Reduce Fertility? Nationwide Evidence from Mexico

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  • Susan W. Parker
  • Soomin Ryu

Abstract

Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs, which link transfers to investment in human capital in poor families, have spread around the world over the past two decades. This paper studies the medium‐term effects of Progresa, the pioneering Mexican CCT program, on fertility using nationwide vital statistics combined with administrative data on program receipt. The effects of CCTs are likely to vary by age of the woman, and we study impacts by five‐year age intervals. We test and account for possible underreporting of births using indirect methods. We find that Progresa led to an important and statistically significant decline in teenage fertility and smaller, but still significant, effects on reducing the fertility of older women.

Suggested Citation

  • Susan W. Parker & Soomin Ryu, 2023. "Do Conditional Cash Transfers Reduce Fertility? Nationwide Evidence from Mexico," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 49(3), pages 599-616, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:49:y:2023:i:3:p:599-616
    DOI: 10.1111/padr.12576
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harbers, Imke, 2020. "Legal identity for all? Gender inequality in the timing of birth registration in Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Paul Schultz, T., 2004. "School subsidies for the poor: evaluating the Mexican Progresa poverty program," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 199-250, June.
    3. Kenneth I. Wolpin & Petra E. Todd, 2006. "Assessing the Impact of a School Subsidy Program in Mexico: Using a Social Experiment to Validate a Dynamic Behavioral Model of Child Schooling and Fertility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1384-1417, December.
    4. Jere R. Behrman & Susan W. Parker & Petra E. Todd, 2011. "Do Conditional Cash Transfers for Schooling Generate Lasting Benefits?: A Five-Year Followup of PROGRESA/Oportunidades," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 46(1), pages 93-122.
    5. Sarah Baird & Craig McIntosh & Berk Özler, 2011. "Cash or Condition? Evidence from a Cash Transfer Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 1709-1753.
    6. Barham, Tania, 2011. "A healthier start: The effect of conditional cash transfers on neonatal and infant mortality in rural Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 74-85, January.
    7. Susan W. Parker & Petra E. Todd, 2017. "Conditional Cash Transfers: The Case of Progresa/Oportunidades," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 866-915, September.
    8. César Martinelli & Susan W. Parker, 2008. "Do School Subsidies Promote Human Capital Investment among the Poor?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(2), pages 261-276, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Juanita Bloomfield & José María Cabrera, 2026. "Long‐term impacts on education of a cash transfer during early life," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(1), January.
    2. Garcez, Lucas N. & Padilla-Romo, María & Peluffo, Cecilia & Pineda-Torres, Mayra, 2025. "Improvements in schooling opportunities and teen births," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).

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