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Spatial Analysis of the Causes of Fertility Decline in Prussia

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  • Joshua R. Goldstein
  • Sebastian Klüsener

Abstract

type="main"> This article contributes to the geographic analysis of fertility decline in the demographic transition in Europe. We reanalyze Galloway, Hammel, and Lee's (1994) Prussian data with spatial analysis methods. Our multivariate analysis provides evidence of the predictive effect of both economic and cultural variables. Furthermore, even after all of the observable economic, social, and cultural variables have been controlled for, our findings show that a significant unexplained geographic clustering of fertility decline remains. We then specify spatial econometric models, which show that in addition to economic and cultural factors, socio-geographic factors such as being adjacent to areas of sharp fertility decline are also needed to understand the pattern of fertility decline. These results provide new support for the role of social diffusion in the process, while allowing for the direct structural effects of economic change.

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  • Joshua R. Goldstein & Sebastian Klüsener, 2014. "Spatial Analysis of the Causes of Fertility Decline in Prussia," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(3), pages 497-525, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:40:y:2014:i:3:p:497-525
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00695.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans-Peter Kohler, 1997. "Learning in social networks and contraceptive choice," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 34(3), pages 369-383, August.
    2. Kevin McQuillan, 2004. "When Does Religion Influence Fertility?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(1), pages 25-56, March.
    3. Carl Schmertmann & Renato Assunção & Joseph Potter, 2010. "Knox meets Cox: Adapting epidemiological space-time statistics to demographic studies," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(3), pages 629-650, August.
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    2. John P DeLong & Oskar Burger, 2015. "Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-12, June.
    3. Sascha O. BECKER & Francesco CINNIRELLA, 2020. "Prussia Disaggregated: The Demography of its Universe of Localities in 1871," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(3), pages 259-290, September.
    4. Jørgen T. Lauridsen, 2015. "Is there a fertility paradox in Denmark?," ERSA conference papers ersa15p50, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Anna Shetler & Cory Anderson, 2025. "Neighbors’ social attitudes predict variations in live births among the Amish of Holmes County, Ohio, United States," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 53(25), pages 773-820.
    6. Lauridsen, Jørgen T., 2017. "Small-Area Variation of Fertility Rates," DaCHE discussion papers 2017:4, University of Southern Denmark, Dache - Danish Centre for Health Economics.
    7. Frances Goldscheider & Eva Bernhardt & Trude Lappegård, 2015. "The Gender Revolution: A Framework for Understanding Changing Family and Demographic Behavior," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(2), pages 207-239, June.
    8. Henrik-Alexander Schubert & Vegard Skirbekk & Jessica Nisén, 2024. "Secularization and low fertility: how declining church membership changes couples and their childbearing," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2024-040, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    9. Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir & Gianluca Egidi & Rosanna Salvia & Luca Salvati & Adele Sateriano & Antonio Gimenez-Morera, 2021. "Recession, Local Fertility, and Urban Sustainability: Results of a Quasi-Experiment in Greece, 1991–2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Gianluca Egidi & Luca Salvati, 2021. "Changes over time in the spatial structure of fertility rates as a dynamic indicator of urban transformations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 151-172, February.
    11. Rafael Costa & Philippe Bocquier & Thierry Eggerickx, 2021. "The Contribution of Diffusion to the Fertility Transition in Belgium (1887–1934)," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 411-447, June.
    12. Fox, Jonathan & Klüsener, Sebastian & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2018. "Is a positive relationship between fertility and economic development emerging at the sub-national regional level? Theoretical considerations and evidence from Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88295, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Sebastian Klüsener & Martin Dribe & Francesco Scalone, 2016. "Spatial and social distance in the fertility transition: Sweden 1880-1900," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2016-009, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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