Neighbors’ social attitudes predict variations in live births among the Amish of Holmes County, Ohio, United States

Background: Despite declining fertility rates in the West, high fertility rates persist among many North American ethnoreligious populations. Such populations often reside in cultural enclaves where pro-natalist norms are insulated from external influences, yet intra-enclave fertility rates vary. Internal community influences on fertility remain understudied. Objective: Using a diffusion framework, we examine how social and physical distances within an Amish enclave are associated with fertility patterns. We assess the relationship between household live births and proximity to others who have differing adherences to traditional pro-natalist attitudes. Methods: We use contemporary cross-sectional data on the rural Amish enclave of Holmes County, Ohio, United States. We test hypotheses for 5,706 Amish households and their proximity to households of ordained church leaders, strict adherents, and lenient adherents, and their proximity to villages. Results: Models demonstrate that spatial proximity predicts reproductive behaviors in uneven, identity-dependent ways. For example, among strict-denomination completed-fertility households and lenient-denomination households at high reproductive risk, living near ordained householders is associated with higher fertility, while there is no evidence for this effect among lenient completed-fertility or strict reproductive-risk households. Conclusions: Findings reveal a complex relationship between socio-spatial factors and fertility behaviors. Within this high-fertility enclave, fertility patterns may operate through multiple pathways related to place and religious identity rather than through a unidirectional pathway with singular outcomes. Contribution: This study provides insights into how residential proximity relates to demographic behaviors, highlighting internal spatial processes that moderate high-fertility norms.