Heuristic Expectation Formation And Business Cycles: A Simple Linear Model
We develop a Keynesian business cycle model to study how extrapolative and regressive expectation formation rules may affect fluctuations in economic activity. We find that simple expectation formation rules may have an impact on the level and the stability of the equilibrium income, the size of the multiplier and the resulting adjustment process after an exogenous shocks. Our model also reveals that national income may be influenced by how agents perceive their long-run average income. Copyright © 2007 The Author; Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 59 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0026-1386|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0026-1386|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Day, Richard H. & Shafer, Wayne, 1985. "Keynesian chaos," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 277-295.
- Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994.
"Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & David W. Wilcox, 1991. "Does consumer sentiment affect household spending? If so why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 168, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Christopher D. Carroll & Jeffery C. Fuhrer & David W. Wilcox, 1994. "RATS code for Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," QM&RBC Codes 49, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Hommes, Cars H., 1995. "A reconsideration of Hicks' non-linear trade cycle model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 435-459, December.
- Chiarella,Carl & Flaschel,Peter & Franke,Reiner, 2011. "Foundations for a Disequilibrium Theory of the Business Cycle," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521369923, January.
- Chiarella,Carl & Flaschel,Peter & Franke,Reiner, 2005. "Foundations for a Disequilibrium Theory of the Business Cycle," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521850254, January.
- Franke, Reiner & Lux, Thomas, 1993. " Adaptive Expectations and Perfect Foresight in a Nonlinear Metzlerian Model of the Inventory Cycle," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(3), pages 355-363.
- Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
- Day, Richard H. & Shafer, Wayne, 1985. "Keynesian Chaos," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 277-295.
- Heiner, Ronald A, 1983. "The Origin of Predictable Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 560-595, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)