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Heuristic Expectation Formation And Business Cycles: A Simple Linear Model

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  • Frank H. Westerhoff

Abstract

We develop a Keynesian business cycle model to study how extrapolative and regressive expectation formation rules may affect fluctuations in economic activity. We find that simple expectation formation rules may have an impact on the level and the stability of the equilibrium income, the size of the multiplier and the resulting adjustment process after an exogenous shocks. Our model also reveals that national income may be influenced by how agents perceive their long‐run average income.

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  • Frank H. Westerhoff, 2008. "Heuristic Expectation Formation And Business Cycles: A Simple Linear Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 47-56, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:59:y:2008:i:1:p:47-56
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-999X.2007.00290.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Day, Richard H. & Shafer, Wayne, 1985. "Keynesian chaos," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 277-295.
    2. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    3. Hommes, Cars H., 1995. "A reconsideration of Hicks' non-linear trade cycle model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 435-459, December.
    4. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
    5. Day, Richard H. & Shafer, Wayne, 1985. "Keynesian Chaos," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 277-295.
    6. Heiner, Ronald A, 1983. "The Origin of Predictable Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 560-595, September.
    7. Chiarella,Carl & Flaschel,Peter & Franke,Reiner, 2011. "Foundations for a Disequilibrium Theory of the Business Cycle," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521369923, June.
    8. repec:bla:scandj:v:95:y:1993:i:3:p:355-63 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sordi, Serena & Vercelli, Alessandro, 2012. "Heterogeneous expectations and strong uncertainty in a Minskyian model of financial fluctuations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 544-557.
    3. Franke Reiner, 2012. "Microfounded Animal Spirits in the New Macroeconomic Consensus," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-41, October.

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