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Economic Fluctuations and Retirement of Older Employees

  • Daniel Hallberg

This paper studies the way in which labor market fluctuations affect the transition to early retirement among older employees in Sweden via the practice of negotiated pensions. The results indicate that downturns (upturns) in aggregated industry employment increases (decreases) the probability of early retirement. This result is driven by the public sector; in general the evidence is much weaker in the private sector. The results also suggest that the replacement levels immediately after early retirement are higher during declining as well as expanding industry employment. The results support an interpretation that 1) the employer and employee agreed on special early retirement pensions, and 2) that these were used in order to persuade older employees to quit voluntarily, but also that they worked to reward older employees.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9914.2011.00522.x
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Article provided by CEIS in its journal LABOUR.

Volume (Year): 25 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
Pages: 287-307

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Handle: RePEc:bla:labour:v:25:y:2011:i:3:p:287-307
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  1. Charles Brown, 2002. "Early Retirement Windows," Working Papers wp028, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  2. Edin, Per-Anders & Fredriksson, Peter, 2000. "LINDA - Longitudinal INdividual DAta for Sweden," Working Paper Series 2000:19, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  3. Idson, Todd L & Valletta, Robert G, 1996. "Seniority, Sectoral Decline, and Employee Retention: An Analysis of Layoff Unemployment Spells," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(4), pages 654-76, October.
  4. Daron Acemoglu & Joshua D. Angrist, 2001. "Consequences of Employment Protection? The Case of the Americans with Disabilities Act," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 915-957, October.
  5. Hurd, Michael D, 1990. "Research on the Elderly: Economic Status, Retirement, and Consumption and Saving," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 565-637, June.
  6. Eklöf, Matias & Hallberg, Daniel, 2004. "Private Alternatives and Early Retirement Programs," Working Paper Series 2004:5, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  7. Courtney C. Coile & Phillip B. Levine, 2004. "Bulls, Bears, and Retirement Behavior," NBER Working Papers 10779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Luc Behaghel & Bruno Crépon & Béatrice Sédillot, 2006. "The perverse effects of partial employment protection reform : experience rating and french old workers," Research Unit Working Papers 0608, Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquee, INRA.
  9. Feldstein, Martin S, 1976. "Temporary Layoffs in the Theory of Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(5), pages 937-57, October.
  10. Hutchens, Robert, 1999. "Social Security Benefits and Employer Behavior: Evaluating Social Security Early Retirement Benefits as a Form of Unemployment Insurance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 659-78, August.
  11. Palme, Mårten & Svensson, Ingemar, 2002. "Pathways to Retirement and Retirement Incentives in Sweden," Arbetsrapport 2002:9, Institute for Futures Studies.
  12. Eklöf, Matias & Hallberg, Daniel, 2006. "Estimating retirement behavior with special early retirement offers," Working Paper Series 2006:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  13. Feldstein, Martin S, 1978. "The Effect of Unemployment Insurance on Temporary Layoff Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(5), pages 834-46, December.
  14. Topel, Robert H, 1984. "Experience Rating of Unemployment Insurance and the Incidence of Unemployment," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 61-90, April.
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