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Leave‐K‐Out Diagnostics In State‐Space Models

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  • Tommaso Proietti

Abstract

. The paper derives an algorithm for computing leave‐k‐out diagnostics for the detection of patches of outliers for stationary and nonstationary state‐space models with regression effects. The algorithm is based on a reverse run of the Kalman filter on the smoothing errors and is both efficient and easy to implement. The US index of industrial production for textiles is used to illustrate the application of the algorithm.

Suggested Citation

  • Tommaso Proietti, 2003. "Leave‐K‐Out Diagnostics In State‐Space Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 221-236, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:24:y:2003:i:2:p:221-236
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9892.00304
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    1. John Haslett & Kevin Hayes, 1998. "Residuals for the linear model with general covariance structure," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 60(1), pages 201-215.
    2. Proietti Tommaso, 1998. "Characterizing Asymmetries in Business Cycles Using Smooth-Transition Structural Time-Series Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-18, October.
    3. Atkinson, A. C. & Koopman, S. J. & Shephard, N., 1997. "Detecting shocks: Outliers and breaks in time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 387-422, October.
    4. Harvey, Andrew C & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1992. "Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 377-389, October.
    5. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 224-236, April.
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    1. Proietti, Tommaso, 2003. "Forecasting the US unemployment rate," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 451-476, March.
    2. Kevin Boyle & Christopher Parmeter & Brent Boehlert & Robert Paterson, 2013. "Due Diligence in Meta-analyses to Support Benefit Transfers," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(3), pages 357-386, July.
    3. Tommaso Proietti, 2005. "Forecasting and signal extraction with misspecified models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 539-556.
    4. Proietti, Tommaso, 2007. "Signal extraction and filtering by linear semiparametric methods," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 935-958, October.
    5. Palma, Wilfredo & Bondon, Pascal & Tapia, José, 2008. "Assessing influence in Gaussian long-memory models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(9), pages 4487-4501, May.

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