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Persistent poverty and children's cognitive development: evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study

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  • Andrew Dickerson
  • Gurleen K. Popli

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="rssa12128-abs-0001"> We use data from the four sweeps of the UK Millennium Cohort Study of children born at the turn of the 21st century to document the effect that poverty, and in particular persistent poverty, has on their cognitive development in their early years. Using structural equation modelling, we show that children born into poverty have significantly lower test scores at age 3, age 5 and age 7 years, and that continually living in poverty in their early years has a cumulative negative effect on their cognitive development. For children who are persistently in poverty throughout their early years, their cognitive development test scores at age 7 years are almost 20 percentile ranks lower than children who have never experienced poverty, even after controlling for a wide range of background characteristics and parental investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Dickerson & Gurleen K. Popli, 2016. "Persistent poverty and children's cognitive development: evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(2), pages 535-558, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:179:y:2016:i:2:p:535-558
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/rssa.2016.179.issue-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Viviane Valdes & Lara J Pierce & Christianne Joy Lane & Emily B Reilly & Sarah K G Jensen & Alma Gharib & Pat Levitt & Charles A Nelson III & Barbara L Thompson, 2020. "An exploratory study of predictors of cognition in two low-income samples of infants across the first year of life," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-19, September.
    2. David Madden, 2022. "The socio‐economic gradient of cognitive test scores: evidence from two cohorts of Irish children," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 265-290, September.
    3. Sinha, Kompal & Davillas, Apostolos & Jones, Andrew M. & Sharma, Anurag, 2021. "Do socioeconomic health gradients persist over time and beyond income? A distributional analysis using UK biomarker data," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    4. Tammy Campbell & Ludovica Gambaro & Kitty Stewart, 2019. "Inequalities in the experience of early education in England: Access, peer groups and transitions," CASE Papers /214, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    5. Jemimah Ride, 2019. "Is socioeconomic inequality in postnatal depression an early-life root of disadvantage for children?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 20(7), pages 1013-1027, September.
    6. David (David Patrick) Madden, 2020. "The Socioeconomic Gradient of Cognitive Test Scores: Evidence from Two Cohorts of Irish Children," Working Papers 202020, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    7. Pudney, Stephen & Diaz, Yadira, 2013. "Measuring poverty persistence with missing data with an application to Peruvian panel data," ISER Working Paper Series 2013-22, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    8. Henrietta A. Asiamah, 2021. "Childhood Chronic Poverty Estimations: Looking Beyond a Count Index," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 14(1), pages 185-215, February.
    9. Gary W. Reinbold, 2018. "Comparing Mechanisms to Child Outcomes from Long-Term Economic Well-Being Measured with the Official Poverty Measure and the Supplemental Poverty Measure," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 11(3), pages 1007-1028, June.
    10. Stuart Campbell & Ana Nuevo‐Chiquero & Gurleen Popli & Anita Ratcliffe, 2020. "Parental Ethnic Identity and Child Test Scores," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(4), pages 851-881, December.
    11. Zlata Bruckauf & Yekaterina Chzhen & UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre, 2016. "Poverty and Children’s Cognitive Trajectories: Evidence from the United Kingdom Millennium Cohort Study," Papers inwopa839, Innocenti Working Papers.
    12. Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. & Harmon, Colm P. & Staneva, Anita, 2018. "The Bilingual Gap in Children's Language and Emotional Development," IZA Discussion Papers 11800, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Li, Hanbing & Jin, Xiaobin & McCormick, Barbara Prack & Tittonell, Pablo & Liu, Jing & Han, Bo & Sun, Rui & Zhou, Yinkang, 2023. "Analysis of the contribution of land consolidation to sustainable poverty alleviation under various natural conditions," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Gwyther Rees & Jonathan Bradshaw, 2018. "Exploring Low Subjective Well-Being Among Children Aged 11 in the UK: an Analysis Using Data Reported by Parents and by Children," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 11(1), pages 27-56, February.
    15. Campbell, Tammy & Gambaro, Ludovica & Stewart, Kitty, 2019. "Inequalities in the experience of early education in England: access, peer groups and transitions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103460, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Suzani Mohamad Samuri & Bahbibi Rahmatullah & Norazilawati Abdullah & Aslina Ahmad & Zainiah Mohamed Isa & Hamsa Hammed, 2018. "Early Childhood Research Landscape on Children’s Profile: Coherent Taxonomy, Motivation, Open Challenges, Recommendations and, Pathways for Future Research," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 11(5), pages 1603-1630, October.
    17. Campbell, Stuart & Nuevo-Chiquero, Ana & Popli, Gurleen & Ratcliffe, Anita, 2019. "Parental Ethnic Identity and Child Development," IZA Discussion Papers 12104, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Aynur Karabacak Çelik, 2025. "Current research trends in child poverty and psychological resilience research: A bibliometric analysis approach," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 2449-2468, April.
    19. Bedük, Selçuk & Yong, Anna, 2025. "Long-term childhood poverty in Britain: Trends and drivers across the 1991-2017 birth cohorts," SocArXiv e7pkj_v1, Center for Open Science.
    20. Andrew Dickerson & Gurleen Popli, 2018. "The Many Dimensions of Child Poverty: Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 265-298, June.
    21. Cobb-Clark Deborah A. & Harmon Colm & Staneva Anita, 2021. "The bilingual gap in children's language, emotional, and pro-social development," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-41, January.
    22. Gwyther Rees, 2018. "The Association of Childhood Factors with Children’s Subjective Well-Being and Emotional and Behavioural Difficulties at 11 years old," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 11(4), pages 1107-1129, August.
    23. Richards, Jennifer L. & Chapple-McGruder, Theresa & Williams, Bryan L. & Kramer, Michael R., 2015. "Does neighborhood deprivation modify the effect of preterm birth on children's first grade academic performance?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 122-131.
    24. Siti Fatihah Murtaza & Wan Ying Gan & Norhasmah Sulaiman & Zalilah Mohd Shariff & Siti Irma Fadhilah Ismail, 2019. "Sociodemographic, nutritional, and environmental factors are associated with cognitive performance among Orang Asli children in Malaysia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-15, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion

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