The limitations of using school league tables to inform school choice
In England, so-called 'league tables' based on examination results and test scores are published annually, ostensibly to inform parental choice of secondary schools. A crucial limitation of these tables is that the most recent published information is based on the current performance of a cohort of pupils who entered secondary schools several years earlier, whereas for choosing a school it is the future performance of the current cohort that is of interest. We show that there is substantial uncertainty in predicting such future performance and that incorporating this uncertainty leads to a situation where only a handful of schools' future performances can be separated from both the overall mean and from one another with an acceptable degree of precision. This suggests that school league tables, including value-added tables, have very little to offer as guides to school choice. Copyright (c) 2009 Royal Statistical Society.
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Volume (Year): 172 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
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- David Afshartous & Michael Wolf, 2007.
"Avoiding 'data snooping' in multilevel and mixed effects models,"
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- David Afshartous & Michael Wolf, 2005. "Avoiding Data Snooping in Multilevel and Mixed Effects Models," IEW - Working Papers 260, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- Sheila M. Bird & Cox Sir David & Vern T. Farewell & Goldstein Harvey & Holt Tim & Smith Peter C., 2005. "Performance indicators: good, bad, and ugly," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 168(1), pages 1-27.
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