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Comment ‘A “News” View Of Japan'S Lost Decade’: Monetary Policy During Japan'S Lost Decade

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  • FRANCK PORTIER

Abstract

In this comment, I first propose a discussion of Braun and Waki's “Monetary Policy during Japan's Lost Decade” paper, by examining their model properties following a technological surprise. I then propose some empirical evidence suggesting that the Japanese lost decade could have been triggered by a downward revision of future TFP growth rather by an unexpected TFP slowdown. I show that a plain RBC model is unable to account for the effect of such a revision in expectation, while a sticky price model along the lines of Braun and Waki, or a flex‐price model with a rich sectorial structure, give more realistic predictions. These results favour a “News” view of the 1990s in Japan. Indeed, a downwards revision of future TFP growth expectations act as a demand shock in the short term, while the actual slowdown acts as a supply shock in the medium and long term.

Suggested Citation

  • Franck Portier, 2006. "Comment ‘A “News” View Of Japan'S Lost Decade’: Monetary Policy During Japan'S Lost Decade," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(2), pages 345-357, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecrev:v:57:y:2006:i:2:p:345-357
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5876.2006.00372.x
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    1. Juillard, Michel, 1996. "Dynare : a program for the resolution and simulation of dynamic models with forward variables through the use of a relaxation algorithm," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9602, CEPREMAP.
    2. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2005. "The "news view" of economic fluctuations: Evidence from aggregate Japanese data and sectoral US data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-652, December.
    3. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters, in: Paolo Onofri (ed.), The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2007. "When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 458-477, July.
    5. Franck Portier & Paul Beaudry, 2004. "When Can Changes in Expectations Cause Business Cycle Fluctuations?," 2004 Meeting Papers 865, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.

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