IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ijhplm/v36y2021i2p459-481.html

Were the hospital bed reductions proposed by English Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) in the sustainability and transformation plans (STPs) achievable? Insights from a new model to compare international bed numbers

Author

Listed:
  • Rodney P. Jones

Abstract

A new model for hospital bed numbers which adjusts for end‐of‐life care and age structure is used to demonstrate that England has 20% fewer occupied beds than the other countries in the United Kingdom. It also shows that occupied beds in English Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) lie parallel to a line of equivalence with New Zealand and Singapore. This is despite New Zealand and Singapore having invested many years into developing integrated care, while England has not. In addition, England has around half the number of nursing home beds per death available in these two countries. Large bed reductions proposed in the sustainability and transformation plans were likely to have been manipulated to meet financial cost‐saving targets rather than a result of genuine modelling of demand. The ways in which bed demand models can be manipulated to give whatever answer is required are discussed. Trends in occupied acute medical beds in England over the past 20 years show no real reduction, despite a large reduction in available beds. This has resulted in daytime occupancy for adult beds being close to 100% and with resulting queues to admission. The ways to improve the small‐area application of the model including the use of deprivation or social groups are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodney P. Jones, 2021. "Were the hospital bed reductions proposed by English Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) in the sustainability and transformation plans (STPs) achievable? Insights from a new model to compare interna," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 459-481, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ijhplm:v:36:y:2021:i:2:p:459-481
    DOI: 10.1002/hpm.3094
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/hpm.3094
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/hpm.3094?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ian Crawford & J. Peter Neary, 2023. "New Characteristics and Hedonic Price Index Numbers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 665-682, May.
    2. Unido, 2020. "World Statistics on Mining and Utilities 2020," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 20171, August.
    3. Kakad, Meetali & Utley, Martin & Rugkåsa, Jorun & Dahl, Fredrik A., 2019. "Erlang could have told you so—A case study of health policy without maths," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(12), pages 1282-1287.
    4. da Silva, Sérgio Luiz Eduardo Ferreira & da Costa, Carlos A.N. & Carvalho, Pedro Tiago C. & de Araújo, João Medeiros & dos Santos Lucena, Liacir & Corso, Gilberto, 2020. "Robust full-waveform inversion using q-statistics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 548(C).
    5. Jusmiana, Andi & , HERIANTO, 2020. "Suplemen Materi Statistik Terapan dalam Ilmu Kesehatan," OSF Preprints cr3ug, Center for Open Science.
    6. Aly, Emad-Eldin A.A., 2020. "On order statistics from Laplace-type distributions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    7. Green, Mark A. & Subramanian, S.V. & Vickers, Daniel & Dorling, Danny, 2015. "Internal migration, area effects and health: Does where you move to impact upon your health?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 136, pages 27-34.
    8. Christoph Stadtfeld & Tom A. B. Snijders & Christian Steglich & Marijtje van Duijn, 2020. "Statistical Power in Longitudinal Network Studies," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 49(4), pages 1103-1132, November.
    9. Martin Ricker & Genaro Gutiérrez-García & David Juárez-Guerrero & Margaret E K Evans, 2020. "Statistical age determination of tree rings," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-20, September.
    10. Jonas Krämer & Jonas Schreyögg, 2019. "Demand-side determinants of rising hospital admissions in Germany: the role of ageing," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 20(5), pages 715-728, July.
    11. イワノフ, Yu. & Ivanov, Yu. & 河本, 和子 & Kawamoto, Kazuko & 雲, 和広 & Kumo, Kazuhiro & 浜, 由樹子 & Hama, Yukiko & ホメンコ, T. & Khomenko, T., 2020. "中央アジアの統計制度, Statistical System of Central Asia," CEI Working Paper Series 2019-13, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    12. Muzychenko PF & Chernyak VA & Tutchenko MI & Dubenko DE, 2019. "Perspectives of Examination in Clinical Practice," Biomedical Journal of Scientific & Technical Research, Biomedical Research Network+, LLC, vol. 19(2), pages 14236-14239, July.
    13. Unido, 2020. "International Yearbook of Industrial Statistics 2020," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 19198, August.
    14. Si Bao & Shi Chen & Xi Wang & Wei An Zheng & Yu Zhou, 2020. "Statistical arbitrage under the efficient market hypothesis," Statistical Theory and Related Fields, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 84-96, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rodney P. Jones, 2022. "A Model to Compare International Hospital Bed Numbers, including a Case Study on the Role of Indigenous People on Acute ‘Occupied’ Bed Demand in Australian States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-27, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paulina Adamczyk & Wojciech Woźniak, 2021. "Prewencja zachowań samobójczych jako zadanie polityki zdrowia publicznego. Doświadczenia Finlandii, inspiracja dla Polski?," Studia z Polityki Publicznej / Public Policy Studies, Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 8(4), pages 1-24.
    2. Liu, Congzheng & Letchford, Adam N. & Svetunkov, Ivan, 2022. "Newsvendor problems: An integrated method for estimation and optimisation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(2), pages 590-601.
    3. Sun, Chuanwang & Khan, Anwar & Liu, Yongzhe & Lei, Ni, 2022. "An analysis of the impact of fiscal and monetary policy fluctuations on the disaggregated level renewable energy generation in the G7 countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 1154-1165.
    4. Fouquet, Roger & Hippe, Ralph, 2022. "Twin transitions of decarbonisation and digitalisation: a historical perspective on energy and information in European economies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115544, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Vo, Duc Hong & Vo, Anh The & Ho, Chi Minh & Nguyen, Ha Minh, 2020. "The role of renewable energy, alternative and nuclear energy in mitigating carbon emissions in the CPTPP countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 278-292.
    6. Chen, Jiandong & Xu, Chong & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Song, Malin, 2021. "Interaction determinants and projections of China’s energy consumption: 1997–2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    7. e Silva, Danilo P. & Félix Salles, José L. & Fardin, Jussara F. & Rocha Pereira, Maxsuel M., 2020. "Management of an island and grid-connected microgrid using hybrid economic model predictive control with weather data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    8. Ogawa, Keishi & Garrod, Guy & Yagi, Hironori, 2023. "Sustainability strategies and stakeholder management for upland farming," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    9. Kirkøen, Benedicte & Engell, Thomas & Follestad, Ingvild B. & Holen, Solveig & Hagen, Kristine Amlund, 2021. "Early academic struggles among children with home-based support from child welfare services," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    10. Huang, Yu-Ju & Mohr, Gabriela & Cheung, Monit & Leung, Patrick, 2024. "Parental access to ‘Sexual Conviction Record Check’ sex offender registry in Hong Kong," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    11. Paglino, Eugenio & Elo, Irma T. & Martikainen, Pekka, 2025. "Internal migration, health selection, and the salmon bias: A register-based study of Finland," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 380(C).
    12. da Silva, Sérgio Luiz E.F. & Silva, R. & dos Santos Lima, Gustavo Z. & de Araújo, João M. & Corso, Gilberto, 2022. "An outlier-resistant κ-generalized approach for robust physical parameter estimation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).
    13. Halkos, George & Moll de Alba, Jaime & Todorov, Valentin, 2021. "Analyzing manufacturing sector and selected development challenges: A panel data analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    14. Kareem, Olayinka Idowu, 2022. "Fruit safety regulations in the transatlantic region: How are Africa’s exports faring with the regulations?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 886-902.
    15. Guéneau, Grégory & Chabaud, Didier & Sauvannet, Marie-Christine Chalus, 2023. "Sticky ties: Quest for structural inter-organizational configurations in entrepreneurial ecosystems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    16. Jennifer Kunz & Laura Brix & Roberta Di Carlo & Jens O. Brunner, 2025. "Management accountants’ roles and management controls in hospitals at times of strain — Experiences during the Corona pandemic," Journal of Management Control: Zeitschrift für Planung und Unternehmenssteuerung, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 1-30, March.
    17. Joan Costa-Font & Martin Knapp & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2023. "The ‘welcomed lockdown’ hypothesis? Mental wellbeing and mobility restrictions," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(5), pages 679-699, July.
    18. Aura María García Pabón, editor & Ana María Pérez Herrán, editor & Ismael Beltrán Prado, editor, 2019. "Competencia económica : reflexiones sobre los diez años de la Ley 1340 de 2009," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Economía, number 80.
    19. Haixia Liu & Zhongliang Zhou & Xiaojing Fan & Jiu Wang & Hongwei Sun & Chi Shen & Xiangming Zhai, 2020. "The Influence of Left-Behind Experience on College Students’ Mental Health: A Cross-Sectional Comparative Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-15, February.
    20. Rodney P. Jones, 2022. "A Model to Compare International Hospital Bed Numbers, including a Case Study on the Role of Indigenous People on Acute ‘Occupied’ Bed Demand in Australian States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-27, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ijhplm:v:36:y:2021:i:2:p:459-481. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0749-6753 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.