IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecopol/v37y2025i2p685-698.html

The Roots of Populism in Poland Do Uneven Economic Development, Social Transfers, Inequality and Migration Explain the Success of Populist Parties?

Author

Listed:
  • Łukasz W. Olejnik
  • Marcin Wroński

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the socio‐economic factors affecting the electoral outcomes of the populist parties in Poland. According to estimation results, the re‐election of Law and Justice in 2019 can be explained by changes in economic conditions. Slow dynamics of municipality revenues from the personal income tax, depopulation, and social transfers are crucial drivers of its success. Contrary to Western Europe, the effects of immigration and inequality on the outcomes of populist parties in Poland are not statistically significant. Populist parties were successful in gaining support in areas, which traditionally did not vote for them.

Suggested Citation

  • Łukasz W. Olejnik & Marcin Wroński, 2025. "The Roots of Populism in Poland Do Uneven Economic Development, Social Transfers, Inequality and Migration Explain the Success of Populist Parties?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 685-698, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:37:y:2025:i:2:p:685-698
    DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12335
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12335
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ecpo.12335?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grosfeld, Irena & Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina, 2015. "Cultural vs. economic legacies of empires: Evidence from the partition of Poland," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 55-75.
    2. Caroline Le Pennec & Vincent Pons, 2023. "How do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multicountry Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 703-767.
    3. Roger Beecham & Nick Williams & Alexis Comber, 2020. "Regionally-structured explanations behind area-level populism: An update to recent ecological analyses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Marek Naczyk, 2022. "Taking back control: comprador bankers and managerial developmentalism in Poland," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 1650-1674, September.
    5. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "Populism and the economics of globalization," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(1), pages 12-33, June.
    6. Ian R Gordon, 2018. "In what sense left behind by globalisation? Looking for a less reductionist geography of the populist surge in Europe," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 11(1), pages 95-113.
    7. John Ahlquist & Mark Copelovitch & Stefanie Walter, 2020. "The Political Consequences of External Economic Shocks: Evidence from Poland," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(4), pages 904-920, October.
    8. Michał Brzeziński & Katarzyna Sałach & Marcin Wroński, 2020. "Wealth inequality in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence from household survey and rich lists’ data combined," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 637-660, October.
    9. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01157572 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Wójcik Piotr, 2021. "Parallel regional convergence in Poland before and after EU accession," Miscellanea Geographica. Regional Studies on Development, Sciendo, vol. 25(2), pages 83-92, April.
    11. Anthony Shorrocks, 2013. "Decomposition procedures for distributional analysis: a unified framework based on the Shapley value," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 11(1), pages 99-126, March.
    12. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "Introduction to "The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America"," NBER Chapters, in: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pages 1-4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    14. Ernesto Dal Bo & Frederico Finan & Olle Folke & Torsten Persson & Johanna Rickne, 2023. "Economic and Social Outsiders but Political Insiders: Sweden’s Populist Radical Right," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(2), pages 675-706.
    15. Bhalotra, Sonia & Clots-Figueras, Irma & Cassan, Guilhem & Iyer, Lakshmi, 2014. "Religion, politician identity and development outcomes: Evidence from India," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 4-17.
    16. Paweł Strzelecki & Jakub Growiec & Robert Wyszyński, 2022. "The contribution of immigration from Ukraine to economic growth in Poland," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(2), pages 365-399, May.
    17. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number dorn91-1.
    18. Paweł Charasz & Jan P Vogler, 2021. "Does EU funding improve local state capacity? Evidence from Polish municipalities," European Union Politics, , vol. 22(3), pages 446-471, September.
    19. Brzezinski, Michal & Myck, Michał & Najsztub, Mateusz, 2022. "Sharing the gains of transition: Evaluating changes in income inequality and redistribution in Poland using combined survey and tax return data," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benczes, István & Szabó, Krisztina, 2023. "Társadalmi törésvonalak és gazdasági (ir)racionalitások. A közgazdaságtan szerepe és helye a populizmus kutatásában [Social cleavages and economic (ir)rationalities: The role of economics in populism research]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 23-54.
    2. Massimo Morelli, 2025. "Populist policy making," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 32(6), pages 1667-1690, December.
    3. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    4. Margherita Corina & Christopher Hartwell & Alfonso Carballo, 2025. "Correction: Holding back the damage: strong political institutions and the effect of populism on business investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 56(6), pages 819-819, August.
    5. Seabright, Paul & Gonnot, Jerome, 2021. "Establishment and Outsiders : Can Political Incorrectness and Social Extremism work as a Signal of Commitment to Populist Poli," CEPR Discussion Papers 15971, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    6. Giray Gozgor, 2022. "The role of economic uncertainty in the rise of EU populism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 190(1), pages 229-246, January.
    7. Ntentas, Raphael, 2021. "Quantifying political populism and examining the link with economic insecurity: evidence from Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112579, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    9. Matevž (Matt) Rašković & Katalin Takacs Haynes & Anastas Vangeli, 2024. "The emergence of populism as an institution and its recursive mechanisms: A socio-cognitive theory perspective," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 19-40, March.
    10. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    11. Daniel J. Blake & Stanislav Markus & Julio Martinez‐Suarez, 2024. "Populist Syndrome and Nonmarket Strategy," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 525-560, March.
    12. Federico Faveretto & Donato Masciandaro, 2018. "Financial Inequality, group entitlements and populism," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1892, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    13. Raphael Ntentas, 2021. "Quantifying Political Populism and Examining the Link with Economic Insecurity: evidence from Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 165, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    14. Pan, Wei-Fong, 2023. "Household debt in the times of populism," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 202-215.
    15. Sergei Guriev, 2020. "Labor market performance and the rise of populism," World of Labour, LISER, pages 479-479, July.
    16. Eugenio Levi & Isabelle Sin & Steven Stillman, 2024. "The lasting impact of external shocks on political opinions and populist voting," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 349-374, January.
    17. Cohen, Daniel & Algan, Yann & Beasley, Elizabeth & Foucault, Martial, 2018. "The rise of populism and the collapse of the left-right paradigm: Lessons from the 2017 French presidential election," CEPR Discussion Papers 13103, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    18. Christopher Ball & Andreas Freytag & Miriam Kautz, 2019. "Populism-What Next? A First Look at Populist Walking-Stick Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 7914, CESifo.
    19. Wysocki, Maciej & Wojcik, Cezary & Freytag, Andreas, 2024. "Populists and fiscal policy: The case of Poland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    20. Del Gatto, Massimo & Mavridis, Christos, 2025. "Robotic automation and right-wing populism: Do labor skills make a difference?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:37:y:2025:i:2:p:685-698. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0954-1985 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.