IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/coecpo/v32y2014i2p334-350.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Persistent Effects Of Transitory Exchange Rate Shocks On Firm Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • JEN BAGGS
  • EUGENE BEAULIEU
  • LORETTA FUNG

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="en"> Recent evidence demonstrates that exchange rate movements can affect firm survival and entry. However, there is little evidence on whether there are asymmetric effects of an appreciation versus depreciation. This article uses firm-level data over a period of a large currency appreciation followed by a large depreciation to examine possible asymmetries in firm survival and entry resulting in the endurance of exchange rate effects. We find that when real currency appreciations precede depreciations, appreciations reduce firm entry rates to a greater degree than depreciations increase that rate; but appreciations reduce the probability of firm survival at a magnitude not significantly different from the increase in probability that results from a depreciation. Taken together, we find that a 10% reciprocal episode of exchange rate appreciation and depreciation will result in 1,647 (5.2%) fewer firms compared with a regime with no change in the exchange rate. These results are consistent with exchange rate hysteresis whereby a transitory exchange rate shock has a permanent effect. (JEL F1)

Suggested Citation

  • Jen Baggs & Eugene Beaulieu & Loretta Fung, 2014. "Persistent Effects Of Transitory Exchange Rate Shocks On Firm Dynamics," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(2), pages 334-350, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:32:y:2014:i:2:p:334-350
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/coep.12015
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baldwin, Richard, 1988. "Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-785, September.
    2. Eugene Beaulieu, 2000. "The Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement and labour market adjustment in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 540-563, May.
    3. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 1999. "Rationalization effects of tariff reductions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 295-320, April.
    4. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November.
    5. Avinash Dixit, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 205-228.
    6. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    7. Noel Gaston & Daniel Trefler, 1997. "The Labour Market Consequences of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 18-41, February.
    8. Pierre Fortin, 1996. "The Great Canadian Slump," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(4), pages 761-787, November.
    9. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
    10. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2004. "Entry, Expansion, and Intensity in the US Export Boom, 1987–1992," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 662-675, September.
    11. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    12. Edward C. Norton & Hua Wang & Chunrong Ai, 2004. "Computing interaction effects and standard errors in logit and probit models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(2), pages 154-167, June.
    13. Baldwin, Richard, 1990. "Hysteresis in Trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 127-142.
    14. Jen Baggs & Eugene Beaulieu & Loretta Fung, 2009. "Firm survival, performance, and the exchange rate," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 393-421, May.
    15. Koutmos, Gregory & Martin, Anna D., 2003. "Asymmetric exchange rate exposure: theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 365-383, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mao, Qilin & Sheng, Bin, 2017. "The impact of tariff reductions on firm dynamics and productivity in China: Does market-oriented transition matter?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 168-194.
    2. Chin Hee Hahn & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2023. "Real exchange rate shocks and new product margins in the export market," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 208-235, January.
    3. Toraganlı, Nazlı & Yazgan, M. Ege, 2016. "Exchange rates and firm survival: An examination with Turkish firm-level data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 433-443.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/15237 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ben Tomlin & Loretta Fung, 2015. "Exchange Rate Movements and the Distribution of Productivity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 782-809, September.
    2. Jen Baggs & Eugene Beaulieu & Loretta Fung & Beverly Lapham, 2016. "Firm Dynamics in Retail Trade: The Response of Canadian Retailers to Exchange Rate Shocks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 635-666, August.
    3. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2005. "Asymmetric currency exposure of US bank stock returns," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(4-5), pages 455-472, October.
    4. Lucas dos Santos Lourenço & Claudio Roberto Fóffano Vasconcelos, 2019. "Impacts of exchange rate non-linearity on Brazilian foreign trade," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 679-699, October.
    5. Fang, WenShwo & Lai, YiHao & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Does exchange rate risk affect exports asymmetrically? Asian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 215-239, March.
    6. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2015. "Multi-product firms, exports and exchange rate policies. Evidence from an emerging economy," MPRA Paper 65751, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Carlo Gola, 2000. "Export pricing strategy of Italian firms: from the depreciation of the lira to the euro," LIUC Papers in Economics 77, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2013. "Impact of exchange rate movements on exports: An analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 231-245.
    9. Koutmos, Gregory & Martin, Anna D., 2003. "Asymmetric exchange rate exposure: theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 365-383, June.
    10. Campbell, Douglas L., 2020. "Relative Prices and Hysteresis: Evidence from US Manufacturing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Chang, Byoung-Ky, 1999. "Three essays on imperfect competition and exchange rate pass-through in the presence of multiple exchange rates," ISU General Staff Papers 1999010108000013554, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. Koray Yıldırım & Neşe Algan & Harun Bal, 2024. "Investment Hysteresis: An Empirical Essay Turkish Case," Evaluation Review, , vol. 48(1), pages 143-176, February.
    13. Marco Fugazza & Ana Cristina Molina, 2011. "On The Determinants Of Exports Survival," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 46, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    14. Jen Baggs & Eugene Beaulieu & Loretta Fung, 2010. "Are Service Firms Affected By Exchange Rate Movements?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(s1), pages 156-176, June.
    15. John Baldwin & Beiling Yan, 2011. "The death of Canadian manufacturing plants: heterogeneous responses to changes in tariffs and real exchange rates," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 131-167, April.
    16. Barber, Brad M. & Click, Reid W. & Darrough, Masako N., 1999. "The impact of shocks to exchange rates and oil prices on U.S. sales of American and Japanese automakers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 57-93, January.
    17. Sérgio Kannebley Júnior & João Paulo Martins Baroni & Diogo de Prince, 2015. "Macro-Hysteresis Test for Brazilian Exports of Manufactured Products: A threshold Panel Approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 606-637, November.
    18. Loretta Fung, 2008. "Large real exchange rate movements, firm dynamics, and productivity growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(2), pages 391-424, May.
    19. Jen Baggs & Eugene Beaulieu & Loretta Fung, 2009. "Firm survival, performance, and the exchange rate," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 393-421, May.
    20. Chin Hee Hahn & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2023. "Real exchange rate shocks and new product margins in the export market," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 208-235, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:32:y:2014:i:2:p:334-350. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/weaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.