IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/asiapr/v2y2007i2p186-203.html

Japan's Lost Decade: What Have We Learned and Where Are We Heading?

Author

Listed:
  • Hiroshi YOSHIKAWA

Abstract

The lost decade has provided us a number of lessons. One of them is the limit of standard macroeconomics. This paper attempts to show that uncertainty plays a much more important role in the macroeconomy than most economists recognize. Once the economy is caught in an uncertainty trap, the effectiveness of standard policy necessarily weakens. The zero‐interest rate may well be a consequence of an uncertainty trap. In fact, whether or not the economy is caught in such an uncertainty trap distinguishes “depression” from the normal cyclical “recession.” The significance of demand‐creating innovation is another point I emphasize in this paper. In my view, a lack of demand‐creating innovation is a part of explanation of the lost decade. At the same time, this paper offers prospects for the future of the Japanese economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroshi YOSHIKAWA, 2007. "Japan's Lost Decade: What Have We Learned and Where Are We Heading?," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 2(2), pages 186-203, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:2:y:2007:i:2:p:186-203
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1748-3131.2007.00065.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-3131.2007.00065.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1748-3131.2007.00065.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    2. Mr. David Woo, 1999. "In Search of "Capital Crunch": Supply Factors Behind the Credit Slowdown in Japan," IMF Working Papers 1999/003, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 1995. "Macroeconomics and the Japanese Economy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198233268.
    4. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    5. Vasilev, Aleksandar & Maksumov, Rashid, 2010. "Critical analysis of Chapter 23 of Keynes’s Notes on Mercantilism in The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936)," EconStor Research Reports 155318, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hiroshi Nishi, 2016. "Sources and Consequences of Productivity Growth Dynamics: Is Japan Suffering from Baumol's Diseases?," Discussion papers e-16-003, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    2. Toshiki Hasegawa & Kouji Fukuyama & Motohiro Okada, 2021. "Relationships between Expenditure of Regional Governments and Suicide Mortalities Caused by Six Major Motives in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2011. "An empirical model for Japan’s business fixed investment," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 107-120.
    4. W. R. Garside, 2012. "Japan’s Great Stagnation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14624, March.
    5. Hiroshi Nishi, 2019. "An empirical contribution to Minsky’s financial fragility: evidence from non-financial sectors in Japan," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 43(3), pages 585-622.
    6. Ryo Kato & Motohiro Okada, 2019. "Can Financial Support Reduce Suicide Mortality Rates?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-11, November.
    7. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2011. "An empirical model for Japan's business fixed investment," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 107-120, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephen Williamson, 2019. "Low real interest rates and the zero lower bound," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 36-62, January.
    2. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2018. "Understanding the Aspects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Working Papers (Old Series) 1815, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann, 2014. "Exchange rate and price dynamics in a small open economy - the role of the zero lower bound and monetary policy regimes," Working Papers 2014-10, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Abdoulaye Millogo, 2020. "Hysteresis Effects and Macroeconomics Gains from Unconventional Monetary Policies Stabilization," Cahiers de recherche 20-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    5. Jagjit S. Chadha & Philip Turner & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2013. "The ties that bind: monetary policy and government debt management," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 548-581, AUTUMN.
    6. Mr. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2005. "Does Excess Liquidity Pose a Threat in Japan?," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2005/005, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2013. "Modifying Taylor reaction functions in the presence of the zero‐lower‐bound — Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 515-527.
    8. Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2024. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. Chikashi Tsuji, 2016. "Did the expectations channel work? Evidence from quantitative easing in Japan, 2001–06," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1210996-121, December.
    10. Wieladek, Tomasz & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2016. "The European Central Bank’s QE: A new hope," CEPR Discussion Papers 11309, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Coenen, Günter & Ehrmann, Michael & Gaballo, Gaetano & Hoffmann, Peter & Nakov, Anton & Nardelli, Stefano & Persson, Eric & Strasser, Georg H., 2017. "Communication of monetary policy in unconventional times," CFS Working Paper Series 578, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    12. Udara Peiris, M & Polemarchakis, Herakles, "undated". "Quantitative Easing in an Open Economy: Prices, Exchange Rates and Risk Premia," Economic Research Papers 270000, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    13. Boivin, Jean & Kiley, Michael T. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pages 369-422, Elsevier.
    14. Serag Masoud & Murad A. Bein & Wagdi Khalifa, 2022. "Examining the relationship between unconventional monetary policy and exchange rate movements: Empirical evidence from United States quantitative easing," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3444-3458, July.
    15. Taeyoung Doh, 2010. "The efficacy of large-scale asset purchases at the zero lower bound," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 95(Q II), pages 5-34.
    16. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have minutes helped to predict fed funds rate changes?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 18-32.
    17. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    18. Bletzinger, Tilman & von Thadden, Leopold, 2021. "Designing QE in a fiscally sound monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    19. Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Satoshi Ikeda, 2016. "Stock Market Responses Under Quantitative Easing: State Dependence and Transparency in Monetary Policy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 560-580, December.
    20. Kotaro Ishi & Mr. Kenji Fujita & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 2011. "Should Unconventional Balance Sheet Policies Be Added to the Central Bank toolkit? a Review of the Experience so Far," IMF Working Papers 2011/145, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:2:y:2007:i:2:p:186-203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/jcerrjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.