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How convergent are rice export prices in the international market?

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  • Harold Glenn A. Valera
  • Mark J. Holmes
  • Valerien O. Pede
  • Jean Balié

Abstract

This study revisits the issue of long‐term price convergence of rice export prices for India, Pakistan, Thailand, Uruguay, the United States, and Vietnam using a two‐stage pairwise unit root testing approach. To deduce evidence or lack of proof of convergence in price series, we also examine convergence using sigma and beta convergence specified in both unconditional and conditional frameworks. The methodology used is driven by the need to address three key concerns: (i) the likelihood of finding stationary price differentials, (ii) the magnitude of these differentials, and (iii) their speed of adjustment. To evaluate these concerns, we use monthly data for 18 price series drawn from these six countries from September 2011 to February 2021. The evidence points to a lack of international convergence. This gives rise to the possibility that a shield from a general downward export price trend is already in place for some exporters. Furthermore, we find that the likelihood of convergence is greater between pairs of price series that are characterized as high quality or having the same country of origin or having similar market share. Evidence also suggests that a converged pairing is more likely to have a smaller price differential if both price series are for low‐quality rice.

Suggested Citation

  • Harold Glenn A. Valera & Mark J. Holmes & Valerien O. Pede & Jean Balié, 2023. "How convergent are rice export prices in the international market?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(1), pages 127-141, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:54:y:2023:i:1:p:127-141
    DOI: 10.1111/agec.12758
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    2. Fackler, Paul L. & Goodwin, Barry K., 2001. "Spatial price analysis," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 17, pages 971-1024, Elsevier.
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    1. Valera, Harold Glenn & Ashok, Mishra & Valerien, Pede & Takashi, Yamano & David, Dawe, 2023. "Domestic and International Impacts of Rice Export Restrictions: The Recent Case of Indian Non-Basmati Rice," MPRA Paper 123305, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Mar 2024.
    2. Poornima Varma, 2025. "What explains rice exports? An analysis of major rice‐exporting countries," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(1), pages 327-353, March.

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