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A DSGE model approach to examining the impact of the Russian–Ukrainian War and oil shocks on the Moroccan economy

Author

Listed:
  • Abdelhamid Moustabchir
  • Hicham Ouakil
  • Hicham El Ouazzani
  • Houda Lechheb

Abstract

This study explores the impact of oil shocks on the Moroccan economy using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The DSGE simulations reveal that these shocks, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, led to a contraction in the output gap, consumption, investment, and savings, as well as increased inflation. These results highlight the vulnerability of the Moroccan economy to external shocks, particularly those linked to energy prices. They underline the need for Morocco to diversify its energy sources and reduce its dependence on oil imports. Furthermore, our results suggest that economic policies should focus on mitigating the effects of these shocks. Future research could seek to refine this model by incorporating other factors likely to influence the Moroccan economy, such as changes in global demand or specific government policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdelhamid Moustabchir & Hicham Ouakil & Hicham El Ouazzani & Houda Lechheb, 2024. "A DSGE model approach to examining the impact of the Russian–Ukrainian War and oil shocks on the Moroccan economy," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 36(S1), pages 94-107, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:afrdev:v:36:y:2024:i:s1:p:s94-s107
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12741
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    1. Hicham Ouakil & Salah Eddine Kartobi & Zakaria Salhi & Zineb Elhachimi, 2026. "Hedging MENA stock markets with gold, oil, and cryptocurrencies: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine war periods," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 16(1), pages 271-309, March.
    2. El Ouazzani Hicham & Ouakil Hicham & Moustabchir Abdelhamid & Elhebil Abdelaziz, 2025. "Impact of Inflation Targeting on External Debt: Evidence from Low-Income Countries," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 25(1), pages 114-136.
    3. Hicham El Ouazzani & Hicham Ouakil & Ilma Sharif & Abdelhamid Moustabchir & Syed Tehseen Jawaid, 2025. "Climate shocks and economic resilience: a DSGE analysis of Morocco’s monetary policy adjustments," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 79-103, June.

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