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Les modèles DSGE au FMI : applications et développements récents

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  • Douglas Laxton
  • Philippe Karam
  • Dennis Botman

Abstract

[fre] Les chercheurs dans des institutions ayant pour responsabilité de formuler des politiques économiques ont déployé un effort significatif pour développer une nouvelle génération de modèles macro-économiques reposant sur des bases micro-économiques plus rigoureuses. L’article fournit une présentation résumée des applications de deux de ces modèles. Le Modèle Economique Global (Global Economy Model, GEM) est un modèle trimestriel qui comporte un grand assortiment des rigidités nominales et réelles qui permettent de générer des dynamiques réalistes à court terme. Comme ce modèle se repose sur le paradigme de l’agent représentatif, sa faiblesse principale est que sa structure théorique de base ne fournit pas une caractérisation très réaliste des effets de la politique fiscale. En revanche, le Modèle Fiscal Global (Global Fiscal Model, GFM), qui est un modèle annuel, adopte un cadre à générations imbriquées et a été conçu explicitement pour étudier les conséquences à plus long terme de politiques fiscales alternatives. [eng] Researchers in economic policy-making institutions have invested much energy in developing a new generation of macroeconomic models that rely on more solid microeconomic foundations. This article briefly describes applications of two such models. The Global Economy Model (GEM) is a quarterly model comprising a large set of nominal and real rigidities that enable users to generate realistic short-term dynamics. As the model rests on the representative-agent paradigm, its main weakness is that its fundamental theoretical structure does not provide a very realistic characterization of tax-policy effects. By contrast, the Global Fiscal Model (GFM) – an annual model – uses a nested-generation framework, and has been explicitly designed to study the longer-term consequences of alternative tax policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas Laxton & Philippe Karam & Dennis Botman, 2008. "Les modèles DSGE au FMI : applications et développements récents," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 183(2), pages 175-198.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2008_num_183_2_7813
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2008.7813
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicoletta Batini & Papa N'Diaye & Alessandro Rebucci, 2005. "The domestic and global impact of Japan’s policies for growth," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    8. Brooks,Robin & Razin,Assaf (ed.), 2005. "Social Security Reform," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844956, August.
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    12. Dennis P Botman & Keiko Honjo, 2006. "Options for Fiscal Consolidation in the United Kingdom," IMF Working Papers 06/89, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Manmohan S. Kumar & Dennis P Botman, 2006. "Fundamental Determinants of the Effects of Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 06/72, International Monetary Fund.
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