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Macroeconomic Effects of Social Security and Tax Reform in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Tamim Bayoumi
  • Mr. Dennis P Botman
  • Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar

Abstract

We use the IMF's Global Fiscal Model to evaluate recent proposals to reform social security and the tax system in the United States. Introducing personal retirement accounts is unlikely to yield significant macroeconomic benefits unless it spurs additional fiscal consolidation to prevent a large increase in government debt. Similar benefits are obtained if the social security surplus is placed in a lockbox while maintaining the same debt target. Lowering the taxation of investment income is beneficial, but only if the reform is revenue neutral. Debtneutral social security and tax reform in the United States has large positive effects on the rest of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Dennis P Botman & Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar, 2005. "Macroeconomic Effects of Social Security and Tax Reform in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2005/208, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/208
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "United States: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2005/258, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2005. "Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the US Trade Deficit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 363-397, December.
    3. Brooks,Robin & Razin,Assaf (ed.), 2005. "Social Security Reform," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844956.
    4. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Canada: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2005/116, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mr. Dennis P Botman, 2007. "Global Aging Pressures: Impact of Fiscal Adjustment, Policy Cooperation, and Structural Reforms," IMF Working Papers 2007/196, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mr. Dennis P Botman, 2006. "Fundamental Determinants of the Effects of Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 2006/072, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Dennis Botman & Philippe Karam & Douglas Laxton, 2008. "Les modèles DSGE au FMI : applications et développements récents," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 175-198.
    4. Mr. Dennis P Botman & Mr. Stephan Danninger, 2007. "Tax Reform and Debt Sustainability in Germany: An Assessment Using the Global Fiscal Model," IMF Working Papers 2007/046, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Dennis P Botman & David Rose & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Philippe D Karam, 2007. "DSGE Modeling at the Fund: Applications and Further Developments," IMF Working Papers 2007/200, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Botman, Dennis & Edison, Hali & N'Diaye, Papa, 2009. "Strategies for fiscal consolidation in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 151-160, March.
    7. Mr. Dennis P Botman & Ms. Anita Tuladhar, 2008. "Tax and Pension Reform in the Czech Republic—Implications for Growth and Debt Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 2008/125, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mr. Dirk V Muir & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Dennis P Botman & Mr. Andrei Romanov, 2006. "A New-Open-Economy Macro Model for Fiscal Policy Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 2006/045, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mr. Dennis P Botman & Ms. Keiko Honjo, 2006. "Options for Fiscal Consolidation in the United Kingdom," IMF Working Papers 2006/089, International Monetary Fund.

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