IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/abacus/v54y2018i1p79-104.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Noise Momentum Around the World

Author

Listed:
  • Charlie X. Cai
  • Robert Faff
  • Yongcheol Shin

Abstract

We argue that arbitrageurs will strategically limit their initial investment in an arbitrage opportunity in anticipation of further mispricing caused by the deepening of noise traders' misperceptions. Such ‘noise momentum’ is an important determinant of the overall arbitrage process. We design an empirical strategy to capture noise momentum in a two‐period generalized error correction model. Applying it to a wide range of international spot‐futures market pairs, we document pervasive evidence of noise momentum around the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Charlie X. Cai & Robert Faff & Yongcheol Shin, 2018. "Noise Momentum Around the World," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 54(1), pages 79-104, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:abacus:v:54:y:2018:i:1:p:79-104
    DOI: 10.1111/abac.12101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/abac.12101
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/abac.12101?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeremy C. Stein, 2009. "Presidential Address: Sophisticated Investors and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1517-1548, August.
    2. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    3. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. "Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
    4. Mahmoud Wahab & Malek Lashgari, 1993. "Price dynamics and error correction in stock index and stock index futures markets: A cointegration approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(7), pages 711-742, October.
    5. Martin Martens & Paul Kofman & Ton C. F. Vorst, 1998. "A threshold error-correction model for intraday futures and index returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 245-263.
    6. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    7. Péter Kondor, 2009. "Risk in Dynamic Arbitrage: The Price Effects of Convergence Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 631-655, April.
    8. Asim Ghosh, 1993. "Cointegration and error correction models: Intertemporal causality between index and futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 193-198, April.
    9. Denis Gromb & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "Limits of Arbitrage: The State of the Theory," NBER Working Papers 15821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Chan, Kalok, 1992. "A Further Analysis of the Lead-Lag Relationship between the Cash Market and Stock Index Futures Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 123-152.
    11. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 441-468, December.
    12. Thesmar, David & Hombert, Johan, 2009. "Limits of Limits of Arbitrage: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 7212, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Jun Liu, 2004. "Losing Money on Arbitrage: Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Choice in Markets with Arbitrage Opportunities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(3), pages 611-641.
    14. Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein & Wei Jiang, 2011. "Feedback Effects and the Limits to Arbitrage," NBER Working Papers 17582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Richard Roll & Eduardo Schwartz & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2007. "Liquidity and the Law of One Price: The Case of the Futures‐Cash Basis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2201-2234, October.
    16. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    17. Guillaume Plantin & Igor Makarov, 2012. "Deliberate Limits to Arbitrage," 2012 Meeting Papers 831, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-297, May.
    19. Denis Gromb & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "Limits of Arbitrage," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 251-275, December.
    20. Pradeep K. Yadav & Peter F. Pope & Krishna Paudyal, 1994. "Threshold Autoregressive Modeling In Finance: The Price Differences Of Equivalent Assets1," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 205-221, April.
    21. Sercu, Piet & Uppal, Raman & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 1995. "The Exchange Rate in the Presence of Transaction Costs: Implications for Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1309-1319, September.
    22. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 23-42, March.
    23. Kurov, Alexander & Lasser, Dennis J., 2004. "Price Dynamics in the Regular and E-Mini Futures Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 365-384, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jingzhi Chen & Charlie X. Cai & Robert Faff & Yongcheol Shin, 2022. "Nonlinear limits to arbitrage," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 1084-1113, June.
    2. Nartea, Gilbert V. & Bai, Hengyu & Wu, Ji, 2020. "Investor sentiment and the economic policy uncertainty premium," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Stewart Jones & Nurul Alam, 2019. "A machine learning analysis of citation impact among selected Pacific Basin journals," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 59(4), pages 2509-2552, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cai, Charlie X. & McGuinness, Paul B. & Zhang, Qi, 2011. "The pricing dynamics of cross-listed securities: The case of Chinese A- and H-shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2123-2136, August.
    2. Tse, Yiuman, 2001. "Index arbitrage with heterogeneous investors: A smooth transition error correction analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1829-1855, October.
    3. Chen, Shiyi & Chng, Michael T. & Liu, Qingfu, 2021. "The implied arbitrage mechanism in financial markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 468-483.
    4. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    5. Ming‐Yuan Leon Li, 2009. "The dynamics of the relationship between spot and futures markets under high and low variance regimes," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 696-718, November.
    6. Tu, Anthony H. & Hsieh, Wen-Liang G. & Wu, Wei-Shao, 2016. "Market uncertainty, expected volatility and the mispricing of S&P 500 index futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 78-98.
    7. Lepone, Andrew & Yang, Jin Young, 2013. "Informational role of market makers: The case of exchange traded CFDs," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 84-92.
    8. Tan, Senren & Jin, Zhuo & Wu, Fuke, 2015. "Arbitrage and leverage strategies in bubbles under synchronization risks and noise-trader risks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 331-343.
    9. John Cotter & Niall McGeever, 2018. "Are equity market anomalies disappearing? Evidence from the U.K," Working Papers 201804, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    10. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    11. Atanasova, Christina & Weisskopf, Jean-Philippe, 2020. "The price of international equity ETFs: The role of relative liquidity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Akbas, Ferhat & Boehmer, Ekkehart & Jiang, Chao & Koch, Paul D., 2022. "Overnight returns, daytime reversals, and future stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 850-875.
    13. Rösch, Dominik, 2021. "The impact of arbitrage on market liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 195-213.
    14. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Hall, John H. & du Toit, Elda, 2021. "The lead–lag relationship between spot and futures prices: Empirical evidence from the Indian commodity market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    15. David Hirshleife, 2015. "Behavioral Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 133-159, December.
    16. Yang Hu & Yang (Greg) Hou & Les Oxley, 2019. "Spot and Futures Prices of Bitcoin: Causality, Cointegration and Price Discovery from a Time-Varying Perspective," Working Papers in Economics 19/13, University of Waikato.
    17. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Hu, Yang & Hou, Yang Greg & Oxley, Les, 2020. "What role do futures markets play in Bitcoin pricing? Causality, cointegration and price discovery from a time-varying perspective?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    19. Roman Kozhan & Wing Wah Tham, 2012. "Execution Risk in High-Frequency Arbitrage," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(11), pages 2131-2149, November.
    20. Adrian, Tobias, 2009. "Inference, arbitrage, and asset price volatility," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-64, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:abacus:v:54:y:2018:i:1:p:79-104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0001-3072 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.