IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bas/econst/y2025i8p3-16.html

The Effect of Tariff Adjustments on Contemporary International Trade: Evidence from Bulgaria-USA Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Daniela Bobeva-Filipova
  • Emil Panusheff
  • Nedialko Nestorov
  • Atanas Pavlov

Abstract

The paper presents a developed and tested methodology for assessing the effects of tariff changes and the introduction of new tariffs on Bulgarian exports to the United States. Drawing on modern evaluations of trade approaches, the analysis accounts for the specific characteristics of bilateral trade, shaped by Bulgaria’s high degree of openness, EU membership, and active participation in global value chains. The proposed methodology evaluates the impact of tariff introduction through three assessment options – based on price elasticity, demand, and market concentration. The results are systematised, and policy-relevant conclusions for Bulgaria’s national trade strategy are outlined.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniela Bobeva-Filipova & Emil Panusheff & Nedialko Nestorov & Atanas Pavlov, 2025. "The Effect of Tariff Adjustments on Contemporary International Trade: Evidence from Bulgaria-USA Trade," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 8, pages 3-16.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2025:i:8:p:3-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://archive.econ-studies.iki.bas.bg/2025/2025_08/2025_08_01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eduard Marinov, 2023. "On some changes in the theory and practice of economic integration," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 293-306.
    2. Iskra Christova-Balkanska, 2018. "Changes in International Trade and Investments after the Global Financial Crisis," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 85-94.
    3. Mitko Dimitrov & Alexander Tassev & Nedialko Nestorov, 2021. "Contribution of SMEs to the Bulgarian Export," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 72-92.
    4. Christoph E. Boehm & Andrei A. Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2023. "The Long and Short (Run) of Trade Elasticities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(4), pages 861-905, April.
    5. Alberto Cavallo & Gita Gopinath & Brent Neiman & Jenny Tang, 2021. "Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 19-34, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grijalva, Diego F. & Uribe-Terán, Carlos & Gachet, Iván, 2024. "The Contractionary Effects of Protectionist Trade Policy in a Dollarized Economy," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13358, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Lawrence Edwards & Jing Chien, 2025. "Trade Turbulence: The Consequences of United States Tariff Increases for South African Exports," ERSA Working Paper Series, Economic Research Southern Africa, vol. 0.
    3. Fontagné, Lionel & Guimbard, Houssein & Orefice, Gianluca, 2022. "Tariff-based product-level trade elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Carlos Uribe-Terán & Diego F. Grijalva & Ivan Gachet, 2025. "The contractionary effects of protectionist trade policy," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 161(3), pages 821-868, August.
    5. Jiang, Lingduo & Lu, Yi & Song, Hong & Zhang, Guofeng, 2023. "Responses of exporters to trade protectionism: Inferences from the US-China trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Lukas Boer & Malte Rieth, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2024/013, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Chen, Natalie & Juvenal, Luciana, 2022. "Markups, quality, and trade costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    8. Geoffrey Barrows & Hélène Ollivier & Ariell Reshef, 2023. "Production Function Estimation with Multi-Destination Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 10716, CESifo.
    9. Xu, Chenzi & Yang, He, 2024. "Real effects of supplying safe private money," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    10. Julian di Giovanni & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Alvaro Silva & Muhammed A Yildirim, "undated". "Pandemic-era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2023-01, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Nov 2023.
    11. Werner Roeger & Paul J.J. Welfens, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and Innovations: Transmission Dynamics of Persistent Demand and Technology Shocks in a Macro Model," EIIW Discussion paper disbei300, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    12. Benjamin Moll & Moritz Schularick & Georg Zachmann, 2023. "The Power of Substitution: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 54(2 (Fall)), pages 395-481.
    13. Haoyuan Ding & Bo Pu & Tong Qi & Kai Wang, 2022. "Valuation effects of the US–China trade war: The effects of foreign managers and foreign exposure," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 662-683, July.
    14. Mitsuyo ANDO & Kazunobu HAYAKAWA & Fukunari KIMURA & Kenta YAMANOUCHI, 2025. "The Structure of Supply Chains and the Impacts of Trump 1.0 Tariffs: Evidence from Japanese firms’ sales to North America," Discussion papers 25046, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    15. Huang, Yi & Lin, Chen & Liu, Sibo & Tang, Heiwai, 2023. "Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    16. Lukasz Drozd & Marcin Kolasa & Jaromir Nosal, 2026. "Pricing-to-Market in Business Cycle Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 60, April.
    17. Gustavo de Souza & Haishi Li & Ziho Park & Yulin Wang, 2025. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Supply Chain Disruptions: Firm-Level Evidence from "Liberation Day"," CESifo Working Paper Series 12285, CESifo.
    18. repec:ces:ceswps:_11654 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Silva, Alvaro & Caraiani, Petre & Miranda-Pinto, Jorge & Olaya-Agudelo, Juan, 2024. "Commodity prices and production networks in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    20. Kyle Handley & Fariha Kamal & Ryan Monarch, 2020. "Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism," Working Papers 676, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    21. Bekkers, Eddy & Schroeter, Sofia, 2020. "An economic analysis of the US-China trade conflict," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2020-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2025:i:8:p:3-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Diana Dimitrova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ikbasbg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.