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Emocjonalne i zewnętrzne uwarunkowania czterech i pół kryzysu ekonomicznego XXI wieku

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Noga
  • Andrzej Krzysztof Koźmiński
  • Sergiej Druchin

Abstract

Celem artykułu jest analiza powtarzalności kryzysów gospodarczych w XXI wieku oraz wskazanie kluczowych mechanizmów ich powstawania i przebiegu. W szczególności analizowane są konsekwencje polityki antycyklicznej, która – choć krótkookresowo stabilizuje gospodarkę – prowadzi do narastania długu publicznego i prywatnego, zwiększając ryzyko kolejnych kryzysów. Perspektywa przyjęta w artykule integruje ekonomię, nauki społeczne i polityczne, zgodnie z argumentacją, że zjawiska kryzysowe nie są wyłącznie efektem czynników makroekonomicznych, lecz wynikają także z emocjonalnych i instytucjonalnych reakcji społeczeństw oraz ich uwarunkowań zewnętrznych. Wszelkie modelowe ujęcia cyklu koniunkturalnego i modelowe sposoby przeciwdziałania kryzysom gospodarczym zawodzą. Polityka gospodarcza musi coraz bardziej liczyć na mikroekonomiczne zarządzanie, nadające gospodarkom antykruchość i rezyliencję, a makroekonomia coraz bardziej odwoływać się do analizy kontekstualnej i tzw. eksperymentów naturalnych. W artykule wykorzystana została analiza modelowa i badania empiryczne dotyczące lat 2000–2023 oraz 22 krajów europejskich, należących do OECD.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Noga & Andrzej Krzysztof Koźmiński & Sergiej Druchin, 2026. "Emocjonalne i zewnętrzne uwarunkowania czterech i pół kryzysu ekonomicznego XXI wieku," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 1, pages 83-101.
    • Handle: RePEc:aoq:ekonom:y:2026:i:1:p:83-101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

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